Deficits and Debt News

Recent Developments:

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Tues, Aug 11, 2026:

• The Looming 2030s: When America’s budget will break, disastrously - WP

• Deficit will be $200B more than initially anticipated: CBO projection

Fri, July 17, 2026:

• How Sky-High Deficits Threaten the Bond Market. Treasury is issuing record debt into a market increasingly unfriendly to profligate governments - WSJ

Thurs, July 9, 2026:

• Governments Must Fix Their Debt Messes Before It’s Too Late - Bloomberg

Fri, June 12, 2026:

• Americans Are Already Paying Dearly for the National Debt. A spendthrift government is raising borrowing costs for everyone. - The Atlantic

Thurs, June 4, 2026:

• US to reach $41T debt ceiling as soon as late winter, forecasters predict - Politico

• Trump’s empire of debt. This century the US has embarked on wars of choice and borrowed more to pay for them. That might not end well. - FT

Tues, May 26, 2026:

• The bond market is telling us the free lunch is over. - Axios

Thurs, May 21, 2026:

• The 30-year Treasury note just reached its highest yield in almost 19 years, 5.2%, and other interest rates are approaching similar highs. This week the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.7%, around 55 basis points above projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). If interest rates remain this far above projections across the yield curve, it would have large fiscal consequences. Under this scenario, we estimate:

  • Debt would increase an additional $2.0 trillion over a decade, reaching 125% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2036.

  • Interest costs would grow from a record 3.2% of GDP ($970 billion) in 2025 to 5.3% of GDP ($2.5 trillion) by 2036.

  • Interest would consume 30% of revenue by 2036, up from 19% in 2025.

  • On a per household basis, interest costs would grow from $7,900 today to $17,000 by 2036.

  • Interest costs would become the second largest government program next year, exceeding defense, Medicare, and Medicaid.

  • The average interest rate would exceed the economic growth rate (R>G) by 2029, with the gap reaching 75 basis points by 2036.

  • Interest rates on consumer loans would increase, pushing mortgage costs up by thousands of dollars. - CRFB

Tues, May 19, 2026:

• 30-year US Treasury yield hits highest level in 19 years - CNN

Wed, May 13, 2026:

• Investors got 5% yields on 30-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007 as surging energy prices push inflation higher. - NYT

Thurs, May 7, 2026:

• As U.S. Debt Hits a Worrying Milestone, Washington Barely Notices. The debt is outgrowing the size of America’s economy. The president’s policies could accelerate the country’s fiscal headaches, experts say, unless policymakers intervene. - NYT

Wed, May 6, 2026:

• The US Treasury signaled it’s still comfortable issuing the shortest-dated debt to meet escalating government borrowing needs — even as warnings emerge about the strategy’s risks. - Bloomberg

Mon, May 4, 2026:

• Treasury yields jump as oil turns higher, 30-year Treasury yield tops 5% - CNBC

Thurs, April 30, 2026:

• U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP. Federal debt exceeding the size of the economy is a potent symbol of the gathering fiscal stresses on the U.S. - WSJ

Wed, March 18, 2026:

• Balanced Budget-Tax Limitation Constitutional Amendment fails in House: The House voted 211-207 (short of the necessary two-thirds) failing to pass—on a nearly party line vote—a joint resolution that would have amended the U.S. Constitution to bar the federal government from running a deficit or increasing taxes absent a 2/3 vote in each chamber. The joint resolution needed to clear each chamber of Congress by a two-thirds vote and ratified by three-fourths of the states. - Politico

  • TrillionsWeekly: Notably, last year’s “big beautiful bill” would have violated the constitutional amendment by causing deficit increases in each of the next 10 years; and the Administration’s $200 billion request for additional defense funds for the Iran war would also have violated the constitutional amendment because there is no declaration of war in effect.

Mon, March 16, 2026:

• The U.S. national debt has long been on an unsustainable path. Nonetheless, for most of the 20th century, debt sustainability has been bolstered by the fact that the average interest rate paid on the debt (R) has been lower than the rate of economic growth (G). Unfortunately, this may soon no longer be the case. According to the latest estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), R will exceed G in just five years – by Fiscal Year 2031. Over time, this could lead to a debt spiral, putting the debt on an increasingly unsustainable trajectory and perhaps even sparking a fiscal crisis. - CRFB.org

Wed, Feb 25, 2026:

• The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056 - released by CBO
  Under current policies, the public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to grow from 101% this year, to 120% in 10 years, 144% in 20 years, and 175% in 30 years. As a consequence of this enormous debt growth, annual (net) interest payments will grow from 14% of the federal budget this year to 25% in 30 years.

Sat, Feb 21, 2026:

• Fiscal effects of the new 15% tariffs: Assuming Section 122 tariffs expire in 150 days, the administration’s tariffs will raise about $1.3 trillion over 2026-35, though slower economic growth reduces revenues and brings the net dynamic revenue to $1.1 trillion. (If they are instead made permanent, these figures would be $2.2 trillion and $1.9 trillion.) - Yale Budget Lab

Thurs, Feb 12, 2026:

• 9 key takeaways from the latest CBO report: National Debt Outlook Gets Worse as Interest Costs Exceed $1 Trillion Annually - PGPF

Wed, Feb 11, 2026:

• CBO’s February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook - CRFB

• Trillions National Weekly: CBO Releases Budget & Economic Outlook Showing Worsening Deficits - TrillionsWeekly.Com

• Congressional Budget Office released its Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 - CBO

Wed, Feb 4, 2026:

• One path to U.S. fiscal disaster is most alarming — and most likely. The national debt is nearing $39 trillion. Dire consequences are coming. - WP / George Will

Thurs, Jan 22, 2026:

• DeSantis pushing states to support the “Balanced Budget Campaign” supported by GOP Governors.

Wed, Dec 3, 2025:

• A $2,000 Tariff Dividend for Everyone? Bad Idea – Bloomberg

Sat, Nov 29, 2025:

• Is America Heading for a Debt Crisis? Look Abroad for Answers. All that stands between the U.S. and a debt-market freakout is the dollar. Having the world’s reserve currency isn’t the unbreakable shield many assume. – WSJ

Sat, Nov 22, 2025:

• Welfare fraud is far too common. People who want better social services should be more upset about what’s happening in Minneapolis. – WP

Fri, Oct 31, 2025:

• Washington Ignores a Looming Fiscal Emergency – Bloomberg Editorial Bd.

Wed, Oct 15, 2025:

• IMF warns US must tackle its yawning deficit – FT

• Global Public Debt Set to Top Post-WWII Levels by 2029, IMF Says – Bloomberg

• We can restructure debt for humanitarian ends. Poor and middle-income countries are spending money on interest payments that could go towards essential public goods – FT

Tues, Oct 14, 2025:

• Most Americans say taxing the rich is best way to reduce federal debt: Gallup – The Hill

Sun, Oct 12, 2025:

• Partisan shutdown standoff ignores key risk to US stability: rising national debt – Reuters

Thurs, Oct 9, 2025:

• The Latest Beltway Deficit: $1.8 Trillion. Interest on the national debt is now $1.03 trillion, and climbing. – WSJ Editorial Bd.

Wed, Oct 8, 2025:

• The federal budget deficit in FY 2025 was $1.8 trillion. – CBO

Thurs, Sept 25, 2025:

• Days before a potential government shutdown, U.S. fiscal confidence is low and falling. The Fiscal Confidence Index in September fell three points to 46 (100 is neutral), reflecting rising concern about the national debt – PGP Foundation

Tues, Sept 16, 2025:

• The coming wave of debt servicing costs – FT

Fri, Aug 8, 2025:

• Five ways to stop the onrushing debt disaster. All long shots, alas. The looming fiscal crisis elicits an odd optimism that Congress will act in time to avert it. – WP

Tues, Aug 5, 2025:

• US Plans Record $100 Billion Bill Sale as Borrowing Needs Mount – Bloomberg

Thurs, July 31, 2025:

• GOP claims that tariff revenues can be used to pay “tariff dividends” to taxpayers or “pay down the national debt.” – WP

  • TrillionsWeekly.com: This is utter nonsense. The U.S. is running annual deficits close to $2 trillion per year. New tariff revenues may generate $200 – $300 billion per year (which is uncertain because imports will decrease as tariffs go up). Tariff revenues will simply lower annual deficits by 10 – 15%, and that is before figuring in deficit increases from the tax cuts in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Tariffs don’t give us any “extra revenues” to send back to taxpayers or reduce accumulated public debt. They simply reduce annual deficits by a fractional amount, while accumulated debt continues rising dangerously. Bottom line: sending checks approximating “tariff revenues” to taxpayers would be additional federal spending, financed by federal borrowing, and would increase deficits.