TRILLIONS National Weekly – Dec. 21, 2025
ACA Enhanced Subsidies Expire Next Week, but Extension Vote to Occur in January; Partial Government Shutdown Looms next Month as GOP Rejects Bipartisanship; 2025-in-Review; Major Developments
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(1) AFFORDABLE CARE ACT ENHANCED SUBSIDIES WILL EXPIRE DECEMBER 31, 2025, SENDING ACA PREMIUMS SOARING AND LEAVING MANY WITHOUT COVERAGE; However, 4 House Republicans Joined with Democrats to Force a January Vote on Extending Enhanced Subsidies.
Background: During the 2025 government shutdown, Democrats’ primary goal was to include extension of expiring ACA enhanced subsidies in the spending law that ended the shutdown. However, Republican leaders refused to include an extension, instead promising a December Senate vote on a Democratic proposal to extend the enhanced subsidies for three years. The 3-year extension fell short of the required 60 votes in the Senate two weeks ago, and last week, the House GOP Leadership did not allow a vote on extending subsidies—instead, passing an alternative health bill. However, at the same time, a small group of moderate Republicans signed onto a Democratic discharge petition which will force a January vote in the House on the 3-year extension. Details follow.
What Are “Enhanced ACA Subsidies?” The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provides federal tax credits to subsidize the purchase of private health insurance for individuals and families who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid. Enrollees select private health insurance plans offered through “marketplace exchanges” administered by their state, or by the federal government for states that do not have their own exchanges.
The original ACA subsidies were available for people who have incomes up to 400% of the poverty line.
In 2021, Congress enacted “enhanced” ACA subsidies to expand coverage during the pandemic—more than doubling the number of ACA enrollments to over 24 million.
The enhancements were originally enacted for two years, but were later extended through December 31, 2025.
On January 1, 2026, ACA subsidies revert back to the original, more limited, levels. Expiration of the enhanced subsidies will, on average, more than double marketplace premium payments in 2026—although the amount of increase varies significantly depending on income, age, family size, and state—and an estimated 2.2 million to 4.8 million people will lose coverage in 2026 due to expiration of enhanced premium subsidies.
Read more from today’s WP: “The end of covid-era subsidies is placing intense economic pressure on insurers and consumers in some ACA markets.”
Last Wednesday, House Republicans passed 216-211 (HR 6703) an alternative health care plan, which did not include an extension of enhanced subsidies. Instead, the House-passed bill—which has not been acted on by the Senate—includes:
“Association Health Plans” (AHPs) allowing small employers to band together to purchase coverage;
New transparency requirements for pharmacy benefit managers aimed at controlling costs;
The restoration of cost-sharing reduction payments to health insurers which Trump canceled during his first term;
Legislation allowing employers to offer workers tax-advantaged “Choice Accounts” to pay for ACA marketplace health insurance, in lieu of offering a traditional group plan; and
“Stop-loss” insurance aimed at expanding access of self-insured small businesses to insurance policies protecting against catastrophic health costs.
Moderates Force an Enhanced Subsidies Extension Vote in January: When House Republican Leadership last week denied moderate House Republicans an opportunity to offer an amendment to extend enhanced ACA subsidies, four House Republicans signed the Democrats’ discharge petition for a 3-year ACA extension—providing the 218 signatures required to force a House vote on the 3-year extension in January.
This morning (Sunday, 12/21) House Democratic Leader Jeffries predicted, “It will pass, with a bipartisan majority, and then that will put the pressure on John Thune and Senate Republicans to actually do the right thing by the American people: pass a straightforward extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits…”
While the Senate has already rejected the 3-year extension, House passage of the extension in January may put renewed pressure on moderate Senate Republicans to negotiate a deal with Democrats.
However, based on recent statements from Senate Democratic Leader Schumer, Democrats will not again link funding of the government to enactment of an ACA subsidies extension. If there is another government shutdown in late January, it will be over disagreements on funding levels, not expiration of the ACA subsidies.
(2) PARTIAL SHUTDOWN LOOMS JANUARY 31, 2026, AS 9 SPENDING BILLS REMAIN UNFINISHED and GOP APPROPRIATORS REJECT BIPARTISAN NEGOTIATIONS.
Background: In November, the Senate passed 60-40, and the House passed 222-209, a spending bill enacting 3 of the 12 regular appropriation bills, (Agriculture, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs), and providing stopgap funding through January 30, 2026 for agencies funded by the nine unfinished appropriation bills.
The nine unfinished appropriation bills are: Commerce-Justice-Science; Defense; Energy-Water; Financial Services-Gen. Govt. (FSGG); Homeland Security; Interior-Environment; Labor-HHS-Education; State-Foreign Operations; and Transportation-HUD. (Click on the bill names for the latest status of each bill.)
On Saturday, December 20, Republican Appropriations Chairs Rep. Tom Cole and Sen. Susan Collins rejected bipartisan negotiations on spending levels for the remaining 9 bills, instead striking a highly partisan tone (contrary to the Senate’s typical tradition of bipartisan appropriations): “Completing the FY26 process through full-year appropriations will enact America First priorities, replace Biden-era policies, and eliminate the risk of yet another Democrat-manufactured shutdown in January.”
Since Senate passage of appropriations bills must meet the chamber’s 60-vote threshold, the GOP announcement of spending levels—without any bipartisan negotiation—does not bode well for avoiding another shutdown.
A partial government shutdown will occur on January 31, 2026, if any of the nine bills have not been completed by that date and additional stopgap funding has not been provided for the unfinished bills.
Senate Appropriators had hoped to move a 5-bill package (Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Commerce-Justice-Science, Interior-Environment, and Transportation-HUD) prior to Christmas, but that process fell apart—first, when several Republicans objected to the number of earmarks in the bill and the inclusion of non-appropriations provisions and second, when two Democratic Senators objected to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) announcing the dismantling of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO. (See the statement from Colorado Gov. Jared Polis.)
In other appropriations news: (1) the $1,776 military bonuses President Trump announced in his speech last Wednesday is money previously appropriated by Congress for military housing; (2) a judge last week ordered the Trump Administration to restore disaster aid funding OMB has blocked; and (3) read this summary of the Trump Administration resuming its illegal withholding of funds and dismantling appropriated entities.
(3) 2025 IN NUMBERS – THE YEAR IN REVIEW
Trump’s approval on the economy is at two-term low: An AP-NORC poll finds that Trump’s approval on the economy has dropped from 40% in March to 31% in December.
Consumer confidence is near historic lows: The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 71.7 in January 2025 and fell into the low-50s in November and December—near historic lows and 15-19 points below the January level.
Inflation is slightly lower but remains above the Fed’s 2% target: Rising prices (inflation) has seen only slight improvement in 2025 with the CPI (consumer price index) inflation rate at 3.0% in January and 2.7% in November. The outlook remains uncertain due to Trump’s chaotic tariff policies—imposing high global tariffs in April, but granting widespread reductions and exemptions on a piecemeal and erratic basis. Claims that there is no inflation and prices have dropped are false.
Unemployment is rising: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an unemployment rate of 4.0% in January 2025, rising to 4.6% in November, a 4-year high – suggesting a cooler but not recessionary labor market.
Manufacturing jobs have fallen: Jobs in manufacturing have fallen by 58,000 since President Trump took office, from 12.755 million in January to 12.697 million in November. The Wall Street Journal editorial board comments that “tariffs are hurting domestic companies that make things.”
Average effective tariff rates on U.S. imports have risen sharply: from 2.2% in January to 17.9%.
Public debt is increasing much faster due to enactment of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA” which will add $4.1 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years (including added interest costs).
Nearly a half trillion dollars of congressionally appropriated funds were illegally withheld by the Administration during FY 2025: In September 2025, the Democratic Ranking Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committee calculated that “at least $410 billion in federal funding” was being withheld by the Office of Management and Budget. (The Impoundment Control Act permits Presidents to withhold funds only if Congress has enacted a rescission of the funds, or if the funds are only temporarily deferred but released before the end of the fiscal year.)
Gun Violence Remains at High Historical Levels: The number of mass shootings in 2025 is nearly 400—orders of magnitude more than occurred during the years (1994-2004) when the Federal Assault Weapons Ban was in effect.
Measles cases in the U.S. in 2025 reached their highest point since 1992. Public health experts say “it’s the predictable result of falling vaccination rates and years of misinformation finally catching up with us.”
Only 5% of ICE detainees have a history of violent crime: President Trump premised his mass deportation agenda on the idea that he will be “returning millions and millions of criminal aliens.” Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem has repeatedly claimed that they are arresting the “worst of the worst.” However, new nonpublic data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) leaked to the Cato Institute reveal a different story. Of people booked into ICE custody this fiscal year (since October 1, 2025), only 5% had a violent criminal conviction.
Reuters reported that four more people died in ICE custody last week as 2025 deaths reach a 20-year high.
(4) MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS GOVERNMENT
House passed bipartisan legislation Thursday to overhaul permitting, aimed at speeding the construction of energy projects to meet rising power demands. The bill now goes to the Senate.
GOP is split over another budget reconciliation bill in 2026: Some in the GOP are urging that another filibuster-proof reconciliation bill be used to address “affordability” or “healthcare,” although on Thursday, the Chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee said he sees “no path” for another reconciliation bill in 2026.
Trump’s Wednesday address: CNN reported that President Trump repeated “numerous false claims” in his prime-time address; the AP pointed out that his glowing account of progress “is at odds with his government’s own stats”; and the New York Times said Trump’s report of a booming economy was contrary to “the public’s consistent concerns about prices.”
President Trump used last week’s tragedy at Brown University to suspend the entire visa “lottery” program that permits lawful entry of up to 55,00 people annually from countries with low rates of immigration to the U.S. Read the Washington Post editorial on the dangers of using tragedies as a pretext for far-reaching policy changes.
A federal judge on Wednesday blocked ICE from requiring Members of Congress to provide prior notice for detention center visits. The judge ruled that the Department of Homeland Security practice clearly violates a provision of appropriations law (not to mention Congress’ inherent constitutional authority to inspect federal facilities operating on appropriated funds). Expect an appeal from the Administration.
Also on Wednesday, a federal judge said the Trump Administration violated her judicial orders and Congress directives by illegally proceeding with mass government layoffs. “The continuing resolution ending the longest shutdown the government has experienced to date said that no federal funds would be spent [to fire] people through January 30th, but that is not what is happening at some of these agencies,” the judge said during a Wednesday hearing.
In yet another Illegal and autocratic act, the Trump-Appointed Board of Trustees of the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts voted on Thursday to rename the national arts center after both the slain former president and Donald Trump. Trump’s name was added to the building the next day—not coincidentally after most Members of Congress had left D.C. for the holidays. (And in a related story, the White House is threatening Smithsonian funds in a sweeping content review.)
(5) SUGGESTED READS and PODCASTS
Podcast: Reuters Editor-in-Chief Alessandro Galloni on the year in news - Reuters
Trump’s power grab over the budget is breaking the constitutional design – Atlantic
Happy holidays! TRILLIONS National Weekly will return January 5, 2026.
Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: info@capitolpublicpolicy.com.
About the author: Charles S. Konigsberg served as Assistant Director at the White House Office of Management and Budget for three successive Budget Directors; General Counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, where he had principal responsibility for managing federal budget and debt limit legislation; Minority Chief Counsel at the U.S. Senate Rules & Administration Committee where he advised the ranking member on budget, appropriations, trade, and tax legislation; Staff Attorney at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee where he had responsibility for federal fiscal law issues including the Impoundment Control Act and drafted the first explanation of the congressional budget process; Director of Congressional Affairs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and AmeriCorps; and staff director of a national bipartisan budget task force. Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: info@capitolpublicpolicy.com.
He is author of the book, Trillions: A Primer on Federal Spending, Taxes, the U.S. Debt Ceiling, and Fiscal Law. Click here to purchase.
He is also Publisher of:
Appropriations.com which tracks the 12 appropriation bills and presidential impoundment developments each day;
andGovBudget.com which tracks major developments, by subject area, each day.