TRILLIONS National Weekly – Feb 17, 2026
DHS SHUTDOWN CONTINUES – HITTING TSA, FEMA, COAST GUARD; THE ECONOMY, TARIFFS & AI; MAJOR NATIONAL AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
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(1) DAY 4 of the DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY SHUTDOWN.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shut down Friday, February 13, 2026, at midnight due to the expiration of temporary funding for the current fiscal year. (All other federal government departments are now funded through September 30, 2026).
DHS is shut down because Democrats do not want to fund the department unless the funding bill includes provisions requiring ICE (Immigration & Customs Enforcement) and CBP (Customs & Border Protection) officers to identify themselves during immigration enforcement operations, operate without masks, and obtain judicial warrants to make arrests on private property, among other use of force and training requirements that typically apply to state and local police. (Last Thursday’s Senate vote to advance DHS funding (HR 7147) failed 52-47 (60 votes being required to end debate).
Ironically, although the shutdown results from an impasse over what types of guardrails to impose on ICE and CBP officers, the deportation operations of those two agencies will not be impacted because they received generous multiyear funding in last summer’s budget reconciliation law (OBBBA).
Agencies within the Department of Homeland Security that will be impacted include FEMA (which provides disaster assistance, emergency food and shelter, flood insurance, and nonprofit security grants), TSA (which handles airport security), the U.S. Secret Service, CISA (cybersecurity and infrastructure security agency), and the U.S. Coast Guard (responsible for search and rescue, maritime law enforcement, port and coastal security). See this New York Times article for the number of employees at each agency working without pay or furloughed.
Most DHS employees will be classified as “excepted” from a furlough because their duties impact “the safety of human life or the protection of property,” which means they will be required to work—but without pay. During last fall’s shutdown, 90% of DHS employees were required to work without pay until the lengthy shutdown ended.
Politico reports that TSA screeners would miss their first full paychecks in mid-March; FEMA has enough funds to support disaster response for a month or two; and the Coast Guard and Secret Service might be able to tap funds provided in last summer’s budget reconciliation law (OBBBA).
The shutdown will last for at least 10 days, since the House and Senate are both in recess until next Monday, February 23; although, they could return to Washington if negotiators arrive at a breakthrough on the ICE/CBP guardrails. Senate Majority Leader Thune said last Thursday, February 12, that Republicans and Democrats were “not close.” Democrats made a new offer to the White House on Monday, but the White House said “the parties are still pretty far apart.”
More key stories on the DHS shutdown and ICE deportations:
Courts have ruled 4,400 times that ICE jailed people illegally, but it continues;
US citizens illegally detained by immigration officers describe how they were mistreated;
ICE plans to spend $38 billion—at taxpayer expense—turning warehouses into detention centers;
Less than 14% of people arrested by ICE had violent criminal records according to internal DHS records;
Wall Street Journal series on Sec. Kristi Noem’s chaos at DHS;
Some Coast Guard missions may be suspended due to the shutdown;
New Senate staff report “finds that the Trump Administration has expanded and institutionalized a system in which the United States urges or coerces countries to accept migrants who are not their citizens, often through arrangements that are costly, wasteful and poorly monitored.” (emphasis added)
(2) INSIDER’S REPORT: What Mass Media Hasn’t Fully Explained This Week
THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY SHUTDOWN: The expiration of funds at DHS is not impacting the deportation operations of ICE and CBP because those two agencies received multiyear funding in last summer’s big budget bill (OBBBA). The expiration of funding is hitting the other agencies within DHS—TSA, FEMA, Secret Service, Coast Guard, and cybersecurity. Although ICE and CBP are not being impacted, Democrats are attempting to leverage the DHS shutdown to enact guardrails in the DHS spending bill in the wake of the ICE and CBP shooting deaths of U.S. citizens Renée Good and Alex Pretti.
THE RULE OF LAW AND THE FEDERAL COURT SYSTEM ARE AT RISK: Reuters reported on Saturday that “hundreds of judges around the country have ruled more than 4,400 times since October that President Donald Trump’s administration is detaining immigrants unlawfully… The decisions amount to a sweeping legal rebuke of Trump’s immigration crackdown. Yet the administration has continued jailing people indefinitely even after courts ruled the policy was illegal… Most of the rulings center on the Trump administration’s departure from a nearly three-decade-old interpretation of federal law that immigrants already living in the United States could be released on bond while they pursue their (asylum) cases in immigration court.” A U.S. District Judge appointed by President George W. Bush wrote, “”It is appalling that the Government insists that this Court should redefine or completely disregard the current law as it is clearly written.” In addition to the constitutional dangers of the Administration’s disregard of judicial orders, their mass deportation actions have led to 20,000 lawsuits overwhelming federal court dockets.
THE FIGHT OVER PRESIDENTIAL IMPOUNDMENT IS COMING: In their recently enacted appropriations laws, “Congress quietly used funding law to try to rein In Trump on (impoundment of appropriated funds). Dozens of measures sprinkled throughout the recently enacted spending package seek to tie the Trump administration’s hands on funding, an act of quiet bipartisan resistance to efforts to trample congressional power.”
However, Russell Vought’s Office of Management and Budget promptly announced they would ignore the provisions: “None of our executive authorities to control spending were compromised by these appropriations bills, which was a red line in our discussions with the Hill,” the OMB communications director said.
Next to the pending Supreme Court review of the President’s tariff authority, the authority of the President and his Budget Office to ignore congressional directives on spending could be the most significant Supreme Court case of Trump’s second term—because it will determine the separation of powers between the Executive and Legislative Branches.
(3) THE ECONOMY, TRADE, and A.I.
FACT-CHECKING PRESIDENT TRUMP’S STATEMENTS ABOUT INFLATION BEING OVER AND “PRICES DECLINING”: Last Friday’s report showed inflation—the rate at which prices are increasing—at 2.4% in January, compared to 2.7% in December. At the same time, AP reports that “retailers are passing on more of the costs of President Trump’s tariffs to consumers for goods such as furniture, appliances, and clothes.”
HEALTH IMPACT OF EXPLOSIVE GROWTH OF DATA CENTERS TO SUPPORT ARTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE (A.I.): Rising electricity rates are not the only negative impact of the explosive growth of data centers. Politico reports that diesel generators that power data centers are increasing pollution across vast areas of the country risking the health of Americans with asthma and other respiratory diseases.
$50 BILLION – That’s the combined write-downs of the Detroit automakers following years of investments in electric vehicle technology, brought to a premature end by the Trump Administration and Congress repealing emission controls and tax credits for EVs. Meanwhile, China’s EVs are on a path to capturing the global market—already accounting for a quarter of global EV sales.
FED CHAIR NOMINATION: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) who has threatened to hold up confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh said last week he is “open to compromise.” He wants assurances that President Trump’s attempt to pressure Fed Chair Jay Powell to lower interest rates by directing the Department of Justice to prosecute him over renovations of the Fed’s headquarters, will be dropped by DOJ and supplanted by a Banking Committee investigation.
TARIFF NEWS:
China announced it is implementing zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries;
The U.S. and Taiwan finalized a deal to cut tariffs and boost purchases of U.S. exports;
Trump announced plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminum goods;
New polling from Pew found over half of Americans disapprove of the President’s trade agenda; and
President Trump’s tariffs have led to a… record-breaking financial shortfall among importers.
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Following up on last week’s release by the Congressional Budget Office of the Budget and Economic Outlook for the next 10 years:
(4) MAJOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
TRUMP THREATENS EXECUTIVE ORDER ON PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP: On Friday, President Trump threatened an executive order requiring voters to present proof of citizenship if the Senate does not pass the “SAVE Act” which passed the House last week.
It is probable that such an executive order would be thrown out—even by the current conservative Supreme Court majority—because the President has no authority to regulate elections, which are the province of state legislatures and Congress.
That being said, the threatened executive order, together with Trump’s recent (almost certainly illegal) seizure of Georgia ballots from the 2020 election, present a grave and immediate threat to free and fair midterm elections.
Read more: Republicans are pushing to drastically change the way you cast ballots.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ERASES GOVERNMENT’S POWER TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE: The New York Times reports that “the Environmental Protection Agency rejected the bedrock scientific finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life and well-being; it means the agency can no longer regulate them.”
While there is a process argument to be made that it would have been preferable for Congress—not the regulatory process—to explicitly expand the EPA’s purview to include regulation of greenhouse gases, the Supreme Court had in fact ruled in Massachusetts v. EPA (2007) that greenhouse gases can be classified as pollutants under the Clean Air Act; and EPA subsequently conducted a full rulemaking process, under the law, that included hearings and extensive public input.
In Massachusetts v. EPA, the Supreme Court held: “The harms associated with climate change are serious and well recognized. The Government’s own objective assessment of the relevant science and a strong consensus among qualified experts indicate that global warming threatens… a precipitate rise in sea levels, severe and irreversible changes to natural ecosystems, a significant reduction in winter snowpack with direct and important economic consequences, and increases in the spread of disease and the ferocity of weather events… While regulating motor-vehicle emissions may not by itself reverse global warming, it does not follow that the Court lacks jurisdiction to decide whether EPA has a duty to take steps to slow or reduce it… Because greenhouse gases fit well within the Act’s capacious definition of ‘air pollutant,’ EPA has statutory authority to regulate emission of such gases from new motor vehicles.”
The Trump Administration’s action will be challenged in court by states and environmental groups, but the Supreme Court—as currently constituted with three Trump appointees and a conservative majority—is likely to uphold the Administration’s rejection of climate science and the EPA’s duty to address the threat of global warming to the health and welfare of all Americans. Ultimately, the Trump EPA’s action will only be overturned at the ballot box.
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S ONGOING ACTIONS TO POLITICIZE THE MILITARY:
last week President Trump told soldiers to vote GOP in a campaign-style rally at Fort Bragg—violating strict Army policy prohibiting partisan displays.
A federal judge last week halted Defense Secretary Hegseth’s bid to punish Senator Mark Kelly for a video message reminding service members that they can refuse illegal orders. Earlier in the week, a DC grand jury declined to indict the six lawmakers who made the video message.
EXPIRATION OF OBAMACARE ENHANCED SUBSIDIES: We won’t know for months how many people have lost health insurance coverage due to the expiration of enhanced subsidies in December but, in one state—Pennsylvania—roughly 1-in-5 enrollees in the state’s Affordable Care Act marketplace dropped their health coverage for 2026 as premiums spiked.
CHAOS IN THE SKIES: New York Times reports on the FAA-Pentagon “debacle that led to the closure of El Paso’s Airspace”; and the National Transportation Safety Board Chair said that a Senate-passed bill currently sitting on Speaker Mike Johnson’s desk unaddressed could have prevented the fatal DC air crash that killed 67 people. The technology the Senate bill would require has been recommended by the NTSB 17 times since 2006.
HEALTH FUNDING NEWS: Last week a federal judge blocked the Trump Administration’s plan to cut $600 million in health funds intended for state and local health departments; and the CEO of the nation’s largest public health plan warned that last year’s trillion-dollar budget cut to Medicaid will devastate Medicaid enrollment.
PHARMACEUTICAL PRICES: ”A coalition of more than 50 leaders of conservative and free-market organizations signed a letter to members of Congress on Thursday, opposing codifying President Trump’s ‘most favored nation’ drug pricing policy model into law.” – highlighting growing tensions inside conservative policy circles over regulation of drug prices.
VACCINES AND PUBLIC HEALTH: RFK Jr.’s policy of “medical freedom” on vaccines is fueling the worst US measles outbreak in 30 years. At the same time, his allies threaten to make the situation far worse seeking to overturn state vaccine mandates for schoolchildren.
US AGRICULTURE POLICY IS BROKEN: According to Politico, “in the past two crop years, federal payments, including crop insurance and loans, made up 40 percent of farm income.” (emphasis added)
Congress directed $10 billion in emergency aid to farmers in December 2024. Last year, the lawmakers agreed on another $12 billion bailout. Now they’re looking at yet another package later this year (to offset the damage done to farm exports by President Trump’s tariff policies).
(5) MAJOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS: The Middle East is on edge with the U.S. sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region to pressure Iran into shutting down development of nuclear weapons; and regional tensions are growing between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
EXPIRATION OF “NEW START”: Concerns are growing about the expiration of the New START treaty in early February—the last limitation on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. The Trump Administration rejected Russia’s offer to extend the treaty for another year, with President Trump saying he would get a better deal that includes China—which begs the question, why not keep the current limits in place while aiming for a better deal?
NAVALNY WAS POISONED: On Saturday, the UK, Sweden, France, Germany and the Netherlands released a statement concluding that Alexei Navalny—the assassinated leader of Russia’s political opposition—was “poisoned with a lethal toxin” and “died while held in prison, meaning Russia had the means, motive and opportunity to administer this poison to him.”
TRUMP NOMINATED JEREMY CARL, APOSTLE OF “WHITE ERASURE,” TO LEAD STATE DEPARTMENT OUTREACH TO INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS: The New York Times reported that Senate GOP Subcommittee Chair Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) said, “I do not believe that Jeremy Carl is the right person to represent our nation’s best interests in international forums,” and accused Carl of making “insensitive remarks” about Jewish people. According to the Times, Carl “has espoused the Great Replacement Theory.”
Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: info@capitolpublicpolicy.com.
About the author: Charles S. Konigsberg served as Assistant Director at the White House Office of Management and Budget for three successive Budget Directors; General Counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, where he had principal responsibility for managing federal budget and debt limit legislation; Minority Chief Counsel at the U.S. Senate Rules & Administration Committee where he advised the ranking member on budget, appropriations, trade, and tax legislation; Staff Attorney at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee where he had responsibility for federal fiscal law issues including the Impoundment Control Act and drafted the first explanation of the congressional budget process; Director of Congressional Affairs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and AmeriCorps; and staff director of a national bipartisan budget task force.
Charles S. Konigsberg is also author of the book, Trillions: A Primer on Federal Spending, Taxes, the U.S. Debt Ceiling, and Fiscal Law. Click here to purchase.
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