TRILLIONS National Weekly – Feb 23, 2026
POSSIBLE IRAN STRIKE LOOMS; SCOTUS INVALIDATES TRUMP TARIFFS BUT NEW TARIFFS ALREADY IMPOSED; DHS SHUTDOWN CONTINUES; VOTER ID BILL COULD GRIND SENATE TO A HALT; WEEK IN REVIEW
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(1) NEGOTIATIONS STALLED AT DAY 10 of DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (DHS) SHUTDOWN; FULL PAYCHECKS WILL BE MISSED STARTING NEXT WEEK.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shut down Friday, February 13, 2026, at midnight due to the expiration of temporary funding for the current fiscal year. (All other federal government departments are now funded through September 30, 2026).
DHS is shut down because Democrats do not want to fund the department unless the funding bill includes provisions requiring ICE (Immigration & Customs Enforcement) and CBP (Customs & Border Protection) officers to identify themselves during immigration enforcement operations, operate without masks and with cameras, and obtain judicial warrants to make arrests on private property, among other use of force requirements that typically apply to state and local law enforcement officers.
The purpose of the proposed guardrails is to curb unlawful practices used by the Trump Administration during its detention and deportation operations. Last Friday, for example, “U.S. District Judge Sykes said the Administration had violated her December ruling that found it was illegally denying many detained immigrants a chance for release,” through a bond hearing. Also last week, ICE disclosed another fatal shooting of an American citizen months before Renee Good’s killing.
Of the nearly 70,000 people in detention earlier this month, about three-quarters have no criminal convictions; and only 5 percent have violent criminal convictions—contrary to the Administration’s claim it is deporting only the “worst of the worst.”
The problem with the shutdown strategy is that the shutdown does not impact ICE or CBP because both of those agencies received multiyear direct appropriations in last year’s massive budget and tax reconciliation bill (OBBBA). Instead, the shutdown is impacting the other agencies at the Department including:
FEMA (which provides disaster assistance, emergency food and shelter, flood insurance, and nonprofit security grants),
TSA (which handles airport security),
U.S. Secret Service,
CISA (cybersecurity and infrastructure security agency), and
U.S. Coast Guard (responsible for search and rescue, maritime law enforcement, port and coastal security).
Most of the employees at these agencies will have to continue working—rather than being furloughed—because they are classified as “excepted,” but they will be working without pay. Most DHS employees are expected to miss their first full paychecks during early or mid-March (beginning next week).
Latest shutdown developments:
Last Friday, Politico reported that negotiations between congressional Democrats and the White House have “stalled” as both sides “dig in” and the Administration calls Democratic proposals “unserious.”
One of the key issues of contention is whether ICE and CBP officers should be able to enter the homes of immigrants with “administrative warrants,” or should be required to get “judicial warrants.” Read this explanation of the issue by FactCheck.org.
Over the weekend, on Saturday, DHS announced they were suspending TSA Pre-Check and Global Entry due to the shutdown, but on Sunday reversed course on suspending TSA Pre-Check.
GovExec reported that DHS employees are bracing for more delayed pay, and looking for ways to save on commuting, child care, and other family bills.
Roll Call reports that FEMA’s disaster relief fund could be threatened as the shutdown continues; and the New York Times reports that FEMA has already canceled travel to disaster sites.
(2) SUPREME COURT INVALIDATED TRUMP TARIFFS UNDER EMERGENCY LAW; TRUMP PROMPTLY REPLACED THEM WITH NEW 15% GLOBAL TARIFFS UNDER OTHER LAW.
On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA)—on which Trump has based most of his tariffs—“does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.” Chief Justice Roberts announced the judgment of the Court and was joined by Justices Gorsuch, Barrett, Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson.
From a legal perspective, the ruling is highly significant as a judicial check against President Trump’s executive overreach.
However, from an economic point of view, it is less significant. Following the Court’s ruling, on Friday afternoon, President Trump immediately imposed new 10 percent global tariffs under a different law (known as “section 122 authority”) and on Saturday increased the tariffs to 15 percent.
The new across-the-board tariffs can remain in place for up to 150 days—although they are less flexible than IEEPA tariffs because Section 122 requires a single global rate—so Trump cannot use them to pressure individual countries. After the 150 days, legislative action by Congress will be required to extend the tariffs.
How does this impact imports from particular countries? This New York Times interactive map compares tariff rates on imports, by country, before the Supreme Court decision and now, with the imposition of 15% across-the-board tariffs.
During the 150 day duration of the new tariffs, the Trump Administration will likely initiate procedures enabling the use of other legal authorities to impose variable tariffs on specific countries. Link HERE to an explanation of other tariff authorities available to the President—including tariffs imposed on imports from specific sectors and tariffs imposed in response to unfair or discriminatory trade practices.
Following is summary of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning President Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs. It is significant, not only for demonstrating the Court’s willingness to check executive power; it also provides some indications of how the Court or individual justices might respond to other examples of executive overreach, such as refusing to spend congressionally appropriated funds.
The Trump Administration had claimed under IEEPA: (1) emergency authority to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China to address the influx of illegal drugs; and (2) emergency authority to impose tariffs on imports from all trading partners to address trade deficits (nation’s imports exceeding exports) and their alleged impact on the economy.
The majority opinion recognizes that Article I of the Constitution gives Congress the “Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises” and “they did not vest any part of the taxing power in the Executive Branch.”
The Court rejected the Trump Administration’s claim that Congress, by enacting IEEPA, intended to delegate expansive tariff authority to the President permitting the imposition of tariffs of unlimited amount, duration and scope on imports from any country. Specifically, the Court found that the statute’s power to “regulate” did not include the power to impose a tariff tax: “The Government points to no statute in which Congress used the word ‘regulate’ to authorize taxation. And until now no President has read IEEPA to confer such power.”
The Chief Justice, and Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, found a further basis for the ruling in the Court’s “Major Questions Doctrine”—which requires a clear statutory basis when broad Executive powers are claimed. Chief Justice Roberts wrote that “Congress would not have delegated ‘highly consequential power’ through ambiguous language…where…the purported delegation involves the core congressional power of the purse… When Congress grants the power to impose tariffs, it does so clearly and with careful constraints. It did neither in IEEPA.” (emphasis added)
TrillionsWeekly Comment: The highlighting of the “core congressional power of the purse” will be of particular importance when the Court eventually addresses Administration claims that it has unlimited authority to reduce appropriation levels set by Congress.
On the President’s Foreign Affairs authority: The Court rejected the Administration’s claims that the President’s foreign affairs authority includes authority to set tariffs: “(T)he Framers gave ‘Congress alone’ the power to impose tariffs during peacetime.”
No ruling on refunds: As pointed out by Justice Kavanaugh’s dissenting opinion, the Court did not address the practical implications of its decision, i.e., whether, and if so how, the government should refund tariffs already collected. This complex question will be addressed in forthcoming decisions by the lower courts.
Concurring Opinions: Justices Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson agreed that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, but concluded the Court could have reached its decision through ordinary statutory interpretation and examination of legislative history, and need not have invoked the “so-called” major questions doctrine. However, Justice Gorsuch, in his concurrence, argues that the major questions doctrine is central to the Court’s ruling and offers a lengthy and spirited defense of the doctrine.
Dissenting Opinions: Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, and Alito argued that “the sole legal question here is whether, under IEEPA, tariffs are a means to ‘regulate…importation.’ Statutory text, history, and precedent demonstrate that the answer is clearly yes: Like quotas and embargoes, tariffs are a traditional and common tool to regulate importation.” The dissent finds that the major questions doctrine does not apply here, and should not apply in the “foreign affairs” context.
(3) TRUMP MASSES DEFENSE ASSETS FOR POTENTIAL IRAN STRIKE; U.S. BLOCKADES CUBA.
IRAN: Politico reports that presidential envoy Steve Witkoff warned on Fox News that Iran is “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material.”
TrillionsWeekly comment: Recall that President Trump said last year that Iran’s key nuclear sites were “completely and fully obliterated.” Witkoff’s claim that Iran is now a week away from nuclear capability should be viewed skeptically. The Witkoff claim could be similar in purpose to the Bush-43 Administration claim that Saddam Hussein had “weapons of mass destruction” — which turned out to be false, but paved the way for the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
Last Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is weighing an initial limited strike to force Iran into a nuclear deal.
Axios reports that House Democrats appear short of the Republican support they would need to pass a war powers resolution aimed at limiting Trump’s authority to strike Iran.
CUBA: The New York Times reports that Cuba is confronting the United States’ first effective blockade since the Cuban Missile Crisis and running out of fuel fast, pushing the nation toward a humanitarian crisis and its government to the edge of collapse.
REPLACING THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: After withdrawing from the World Health Organization, Trump officials are now proposing an expensive $2 billion replacement to duplicate the information sharing the U.S. had already accessed through WHO at a fraction of the cost.
(4) MORE ECONOMIC NEWS
ECONOMY SLOWED AT END OF 2025: U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three months of last year, “dragged down by the six-week shutdown of the federal government and a pullback in consumer spending.” The nation’s gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — increased at an anemic 1.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday, down from 4.4% in the July-September quarter and 3.8% in the quarter before that.
HIGH BEEF PRICES: The Wall Street Journal reports “the beef industry has a message for consumers: get used to high prices.” The reason—U.S. cattle herds are at the lowest level in 75 years.
SHARP DECLINE IN U.S. TOURISM: “Last year, the U.S. was the only major destination to see a decline in international travelers.”
(5) MORE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
A SECOND BIG RECONCILIATION BILL? President Trump says no to a second bill—Republicans have “gotten everything passed that we need”—but the House Republican Study Committee continues to lobby the GOP Leadership for an election year reconciliation bill to include housing, healthcare and energy provisions. Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) says it’s a simple matter of math—“we do not have the votes for a second reconciliation.”
DATA CENTERS WILL BOOST AIR POLLUTION, BLOCK NEW HOUSING: The Washington Post reports that tech companies are building data centers “with their own private power plants, a risky bet that will increase carbon emissions and other pollution”; and the Wall Street Journal reports that data centers are buying up land and “home builders can’t compete.”
WILL CONGRESS’ RESTORATION OF FUNDS BE FULFILLED? In the wake of Congress completing action on 11 of the 12 appropriation bills, the New York Times reported that “Trump sought vast budget cuts. Congress granted few.” However, if you have been concerned about the budget cuts, hold your applause. It is unclear how closely the Administration will follow congressional appropriation laws. Budget Director Russell Vought has made clear he views congressional appropriation levels as ceilings, not floors.
DECLINE OF DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (DOJ) INDEPENDENCE: The separation of federal prosecutors from politics has always been essential to American democracy. The disintegration of this critical separation between politics and justice was on public display last week when the Administration hung a huge banner of President Trump’s face above the DOJ entrance, and the Department fired a new interim U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia only hours after he had been unanimously appointed by federal judges. See also this New York Times investigation of the “broad effort by the Trump Administration to largely dismantle the infrastructure for prosecuting rich lawbreakers.”
ELECTIONS AND THE SAVE ACT: The House passed the SAVE America Act on February 11, 2026, to require a national photo ID requirement as documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote and to cast a ballot in federal elections. House Republicans and President Trump believe these requirements will suppress Democratic voting and are pressuring Senate GOP leadership to pass the bill. Normally, unless there are 60 votes to bring debate to an end, a bill would not advance—so this bill would die in the Senate where Republicans hold only 53 seats. However, House Republicans and President Trump are pressuring Senate GOP leadership to bring the bill to a final vote, unless Democrats engage in a “talking filibuster.” This type of partisan warfare would grind the Senate to a halt because Democrats would have to hold the Floor and continue talking without end in order to prevent a vote on the bill. These tactics reflect electoral panic by the White House and Republicans over the possible outcome of the November elections.
EXPIRATION OF ENHANCED OBAMACARE SUBSIDIES: Enrollments for 2026 have declined by more than 1 million people compared to last year, and that number is expected to grow.
PELL GRANT PROGRAM SHORT OF FUNDS: The Pell Grant program faces an $11.5 billion shortfall for FY 2027.
MORE ON TRUMP Rx: FactCheck.org published a good explanation last week of why the claims made by the White House about Trump Rx are misleading. In part, “The majority of drugs that are listed on the TrumpRx website actually have generic competition, and for consumers it pays to shop… You can get a better deal by simply buying the generic.”
MORE TROUBLE FOR THE CDC AND VACCINE MAKERS? Last Wednesday, the White House announced that NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya will double as temporary acting CDC Director. This doubling up comes at a time when the “C.D.C. has been hobbled by funding cuts, firings and resignations; (and) many of its career leaders are gone.” Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that vaccine makers are curtailing research and cutting jobs due to Trump Administration anti-vaccine policies.
VETERANS HEALTH CARE IN CRISIS: A new investigative report by Prospect finds that “thousands of staff have left the health care side of the Department of Veterans Affairs, and those who remain are approaching burnout.”
(6) PRESIDENT’S FY 2027 BUDGET:
The President is now 21 days late in submitting his FY 2027 budget request to Congress, due by law “not later than the first Monday in February of each year.” Perhaps one reason for the delay is President Trump’s incomprehensible directive to increase the defense budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion—more than a 50 percent increase in one year. The Washington Post reports that Trump’s budget office is struggling to come up with details on how to spend $500 billion more on the military.
(7) THIS WEEK’S RECOMMENDED READS
A Pre-SOTU Guide to Trump’s Economic Claims - FactCheck.org
Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: info@capitolpublicpolicy.com.
About the author: Charles S. Konigsberg served as Assistant Director at the White House Office of Management and Budget for three successive Budget Directors; General Counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, where he had principal responsibility for managing federal budget and debt limit legislation; Minority Chief Counsel at the U.S. Senate Rules & Administration Committee where he advised the ranking member on budget, appropriations, trade, and tax legislation; Staff Attorney at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee where he had responsibility for federal fiscal law issues including the Impoundment Control Act and drafted the first explanation of the congressional budget process; Director of Congressional Affairs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and AmeriCorps; and staff director of a national bipartisan budget task force.
Charles S. Konigsberg is also author of the book, Trillions: A Primer on Federal Spending, Taxes, the U.S. Debt Ceiling, and Fiscal Law. Click here to purchase.
