TRILLIONS National Weekly – Jan 26, 2026
Senate Likely to Pass 5 Spending Bills, But Homeland-Sec May Fail Due to ICE Shooting; Subsidies Extension Unlikely; Alliances in Turmoil; 2d Reconciliation Bill; Economy & Tariffs; Major Developments
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Estimated reading/listening time of this week’s update: 15 minutes
Schedule: The House is in recess this week and the Senate has canceled Monday votes due to the snowstorm but will likely be in session tomorrow (Tuesday).
(1) SENATE LIKELY TO PASS 5 REMAINING FY 2026 SPENDING BILLS THIS WEEK, BUT HOMELAND SECURITY BILL MAY FAIL AS DEMOCRATS RESPOND TO ANOTHER ICE SHOOTING OF A U.S. CITIZEN
In November, Congress enacted 3 of the 12 regular appropriation bills (Agriculture, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction-VA).
Three more appropriation bills were completed earlier this month when the Senate passed a 3-bill package (HR 6938) 82-15, including Commerce-Justice-Science, Energy-Water, and Interior-Environment. President Trump signed the 3-bill package into law last Friday, 1/23/26. Click on the bill titles for details.
The House passed two more bills January 14 as part of a 2-bill package (HR 7006) by a vote of 341-79, including Financial Services-General Govt and National Security-State. Click on the bill titles for details. The 2-bill package now awaits Senate action this week.
The House passed the remaining four appropriation bills last Thursday, Jan. 22, in two separate votes (click on the bill titles for summaries and details of each bill):
House passed H.R. 7147, the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026, by a vote of 220-207. Seven Democrats joined most Republicans in approving the bill. Read more: House passes DHS funding despite Dem opposition over ICE.
House passed HR 7148, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, by a bipartisan vote of 341-88, including 3 appropriations bills: Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, and Transportation-HUD. The package includes a rare bipartisan agreement on healthcare that would “implement long-sought changes to the way pharmacy benefit managers operate, as well as extensions of public health programs and increased funding for community health centers.”
The Senate was on track to pass 6 bills this week (FSGG, NS-State, Defense, Labor-HHS-Ed, T-HUD, and Homeland Security) until the Saturday slaying of another U.S. citizen by ICE officers in Minneapolis. Read more from the New York Times and Associated Press. Multiple media outlets are now reporting that Senate Democrats will not support the Homeland Security funding bill (Roll Call, NYT, CNN, WashPost, TIME).
The Washington Post reported that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) said late Saturday that “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.” (60 votes are required in the Senate to conclude debate and pass appropriations bills.)
A spokesperson for Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) said she is “exploring all options” to pass the five remaining funding bills this week.
Outlook: It is likely that five bills will be completed this week—avoiding a shutdown for the covered agencies: Financial Services-General Government; National Security-State; Defense; Labor-Health & Human Services-Education; and Transportation-HUD. (Click on the bill titles to see which agencies and programs are funded by the respective bills.)
However, Democrats are likely to demand additional restraints on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents before they agree to advance the Homeland Security Appropriations Bill. Republicans are unlikely to agree.
Partial Government Shutdown this Saturday: Unless agreement can be reached on further ICE restraints, a partial government shutdown will occur on January 31, 2026, for agencies funded by the Homeland Security bill. These include: Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE); Customs and Border Protection (CBP); Transportation Security Administration (TSA); U.S. Coast Guard (USCG); United States Secret Service (USSS); Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA); Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS); DHS Science and Technology Initiatives (S&T); and Federal Law Enforcement Training Centers.
As a practical matter, it is important to understand the realities of holding up the Homeland Security bill:
ICE will be unaffected because it will still have $75 billion in resources to draw down from direct appropriations to the agency in President Trump’s huge spending and tax cut bill last summer (OBBBA).
The Homeland Security appropriations bill, which Senate Democrats are now vowing to hold up, includes some restraints that will not be implemented if they block the bill. Those restraints include restricting the amounts ICE can spend on detention, requiring ICE to spend funds on medical care, and increasing oversight by the Office of Inspector General and the Office for Civil Rights and Liberties which President Trump sought to eliminate last year. While these are not adequate restraints given the outrageous conduct of ICE, they are the most Democrats could get during appropriations negotiations, considering they do not control the House, Senate, or White House.
Impact of a Shutdown: A partial Homeland Security shutdown will mean that TSA agents and other DHS employees will be forced to work without pay, FEMA disaster assistance to states and localities could be delayed, and the Coast Guard could be adversely impacted.
Check for unfolding appropriations developments this week on TrillionsWeekly.com, or type into your browser Appropriations.com or the shorthand Approps.com. They all lead to real-time updates.
(2) EXTENSION OF EXPIRED OBAMACARE SUBSIDIES REMAINS IN SENATE NEGOTIATIONS, BUT THE OUTLOOK IS BLEAK.
Background: During last fall’s government shutdown, Democrats’ primary goal was to extend expiring ObamaCare (Affordable Care Act) subsidies. However, Republican leaders declined to include an extension in the November spending bill that ended the shutdown—instead, promising a December Senate vote on a Democratic proposal to extend the subsidies for three years. The 3-year extension fell short of the required 60 votes in the Senate.
Shortly after the failed Senate vote, a small group of moderate House Republicans signed onto a House Democratic discharge petition which forced a House vote on January 8, 2026 to extend the subsidies for 3 years; that bill passed the House 230-196 and it now sits in the Senate. Details follow.
What Are “Enhanced ACA Subsidies?” The ACA (Obamacare) provides federal tax credits to subsidize the purchase of private health insurance for individuals and families who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but do not have access to affordable private health insurance. Enrollees select private health insurance plans offered through “marketplace exchanges” administered by their state, or by the federal government (for states that do not have their own exchanges).
The original ACA subsidies were available for people who have incomes up to 400% of the poverty line.
In 2021, Congress enacted “enhanced” ACA subsidies to expand coverage during the pandemic—more than doubling the number of ACA enrollments to over 24 million Americans. The enhancements were originally enacted for two years, but were later extended through December 31, 2025—but have now expired.
Due to the expiration of enhanced subsidies, ACA subsidies have now reverted back to the original, more limited, levels. Read more: Health subsidies expire, launching millions of Americans into 2026 with steep insurance hikes.
Senate Bipartisan Negotiations on Thin Ice: Although the Senate already rejected a 3-year extension in December, House passage of the extension—and the upcoming midterm elections—has put renewed pressure on moderate Senate Republicans to negotiate a bipartisan deal with Democrats for an extension. However, Politico reported that the bipartisan talks are on “thin ice,” with Senate Majority Leader Thune saying “it doesn’t look like they’re close.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) indicated the negotiations are hung up on the so-called “Hyde amendment” that prevents Obamacare subsidies (delivered as tax credits) from being used to fund abortion services.
January 15, 2026 was the last day in most states to select Obamacare health plans, with reports that premiums increased by 21.7 percent on average and the New York Times reporting that initial Obamacare enrollment dropped by 1.4 million.
Even if a bipartisan compromise can be negotiated in the Senate—which appears unlikely—the bill would have to go back to the House for a final vote, and then to President Trump—who in mid-January released a health reform “outline” that does not include extension of Obamacare subsidies.
(3) THE ECONOMY, THE FED, TARIFFS, and AI
U.S.-EU Tariff Deal: Last week the European Union suspended approval of a U.S.-EU Trade Agreement over President Trump’s Greenland threats.
The Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve: Last week, during arguments on President Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, the Supreme Court appeared open to limitations on the President’s authority where the Fed is concerned. This would contrast with the Court’s recent history of allowing Trump to fire heads of independent agencies. Read more: AP, Reuters, WSJ.
Fannie and Freddie IPO in Flux: New York Times reports that “six months after President Trump told Wall Street banks to prepare a swift stock offering, there is no firm plan for how to take the giant mortgage firms public.”
Are U.S. Treasury Bonds in Trouble? Reuters reports that “big Northern European investors are increasingly wary of the risks of holding U.S. assets in the face of geopolitical tensions… A top investment adviser, three pension funds and a leading industry body said the risk premium attached to holding U.S. assets had also gone up in part because of worries about the nation’s finances.”
(4) MAJOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran—President Trump has sent naval vessels to the Middle East (aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and 3 destroyers) following up on threats he would intervene in the Islamic regime’s bloody crackdown on mass demonstrations which have reportedly killed thousands.
Greenland—President Trump backed away from his threat to forcibly acquire Greenland and impose new tariffs on the EU. (“His latest TACO moment.”) However, he now wants to change the 1951 agreement requiring the U.S. to “consult with and inform” Denmark and Greenland before making changes in the U.S. military footprint; he wants to eliminate the consultation requirement.
Canada and China—Canada’s Prime Minister Carney last week delivered a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on what he called the “rupture in the world order” and the necessity for “middle powers” to establish new alliances—including Canada’s new trade partnership with China. President Trump has responded by threatening new 100 percent tariffs on Canada if it proceeds with the new trade arrangement with China.
Venezuela—Last week, the House barely rejected a Democratic resolution that would have prevented President Trump from sending U.S. forces to Venezuela.
Gaza/”Board of Peace”—NY Times reports that President Trump’s Board of Peace is “the latest example of the president’s dismantling the post-World War II international system and building a new one, with himself at the center.”
Climate—Bloomberg reports that three-quarters of the world’s population now live in countries where freshwater supplies are insecure or critically insecure.
World Health Organization: The U.S. completed its withdrawal from the WHO last week, resulting in the organization losing its largest source of funding--disrupting HIV/AIDS, maternal and child health, tuberculosis, malaria, and polio programs in low- and middle-income countries.
(5) MAJOR DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS GOVERNMENT
Another Filibuster-Proof Budget Reconciliation Bill? The Hill reports that “Senate Majority Leader John Thune is coming under increasing pressure from Senate Republican colleagues to bring health care legislation to the Senate floor amid fears of a Democratic wave in November.”
This would first require passage of an FY 2026 Budget Resolution by the House and Senate that includes reconciliation instructions to the health committees (House Ways & Means, House Energy & Commerce, Senate HELP, and Senate Finance), to be followed by those committees developing detailed legislation for the House and Senate Budget Committees to package into a fast-track “budget reconciliation bill” that complies with the Senate’s Byrd Rule. (Note: the House and Senate barely passed last year’s reconciliation bill, and House Republicans have an even slimmer majority this year.)
Trump’s Proposal to Increase Defense Spending by 50% in FY 2027: The Wall Street Journal, normally an advocate for fiscal responsibility, last week endorsed Trump’s proposal to vastly increase U.S. defense spending.
Trillions Comment: This would be unwise for a country that already spends more on defense than the next 9 countries combined, and has a rapidly growing and increasingly unsustainable public debt that exceeds the size of our economy. Moreover, enormously expensive hardware and bigger ships in an age of drone warfare makes no tactical sense. Finally, the WSJ editorial board should consider that effective strategic deterrence, as well as economic stability, are built on strong international alliances—a reality that somehow eludes the fiscal and defense policy officials in the current Administration.
Presidential Impoundment of Funds: President Trump’s budget office last week ordered the review of funds to Democratic-controlled states, saying the Administration would cut off resources to so-called “sanctuary cities” on February 1, 2026. The jurisdictions included in the OMB order are: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington state. It also includes the District of Columbia.
Trillions comment: President Trump’s promised Feb. 1 action would be a blatant violation of the 1974 Impoundment Control Act which prohibits the rescission of congressionally appropriated funds without an act of Congress. It is certain to be challenged in court.
OMB’s $100 million Slush Fund: Senate Budget Committee Ranking Democrat is demanding Office of Management and Budget Director Vought provide answers on the use of the $100 million multiyear appropriation allocated by Trump’s massive budget bill last summer.
Reversing Decades of Vaccine Science, RFK Jr’s vaccine panel chair said last week polio and other shots should be optional. In a related story, a new lawsuit challenges RFK Jr’s new vaccine guidance for children.
More Funding Chaos: Washington Post reported that “the Trump administration thrust state and local health departments into confusion Saturday, temporarily pausing a roughly $5 billion grant that funds workers involved in community outreach, emergency preparedness, and disease outbreaks.”
Law and Constitutional Rights: According to an internal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) memo obtained last week by the AP, Federal immigration officers are claiming the authority to forcibly enter people’s homes without a judge’s warrant.
The Fourth Amendment to the Constitution states clearly: The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
Housing: President Trump signed an executive order last week attempting to bar Wall Street investors from buying single-family homes. It is unclear what practical legal effect the E.O. can have without a formal rulemaking process or legislation.
Recent Fact-Checking: From Wind Farms to Stolen Elections: Fact-Checking Donald Trump’s Speech at Davos (Time); Trump highlights false claims as he reviews his first year back in office (AP).
(6) SOLUTIONS
One commentator’s views on how to address housing affordability: “There’s a practical way to lower housing prices.”
(7) SUGGESTED READS
President Donald Trump’s Greenland fiasco has done Europe an unintended favor. His erratic bullying has forced European leaders to recognize that they need independence from an unreliable America — and to break with their own moribund economic and security policies. - WP / Ignatius
Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: info@capitolpublicpolicy.com.
About the author: Charles S. Konigsberg served as Assistant Director at the White House Office of Management and Budget for three successive Budget Directors; General Counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, where he had principal responsibility for managing federal budget and debt limit legislation; Minority Chief Counsel at the U.S. Senate Rules & Administration Committee where he advised the ranking member on budget, appropriations, trade, and tax legislation; Staff Attorney at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee where he had responsibility for federal fiscal law issues including the Impoundment Control Act and drafted the first explanation of the congressional budget process; Director of Congressional Affairs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and AmeriCorps; and staff director of a national bipartisan budget task force.
Charles S. Konigsberg is also author of the book, Trillions: A Primer on Federal Spending, Taxes, the U.S. Debt Ceiling, and Fiscal Law. Click here to purchase.
You do a great job of keeping up with the crazy world, glad you're going into podcasting.