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Trillions National Weekly © and TrillionsWeekly.com are publications of Capitol Public Policy LLC, ckonigsberg@capitolpublicpolicy.com.
CALENDAR UPDATE: The House and Senate are back in session—the House for only one week and the Senate for three weeks as midterm elections approach.
(1) FISCAL NEWS:
Trump Promised $5,000 Payments to American Adults if Republicans Retain Control of Congress – what you need to know:
Trump has no authority to make such payments; the Constitution requires congressional action before any money can be drawn from the Treasury.
Vice President Vance claimed the money could be drawn from tariff revenue. Not true: tariff revenues go into the Treasury and cannot be spent without congressional appropriations.
Bad Economic Policy: The payments would cost: $1.2 trillion (240 million adult citizens times $5,000) at a time when the federal government is already running a $2.1 trillion annual deficit. The entire amount would therefore have to be borrowed, putting additional inflationary pressure on prices and boosting an already unsustainable public debt.
Additional background: CRFB; AP; CNN; CNBC; WSJ; NYT
Temporary Funding Enacted to Avert Shutdown: In case you missed previous editions of TrillionsWeekly.com, Congress enacted a continuing resolution (“CR”) (HR 6500) providing funding through December 11, 2026—averting an October 1 shutdown when fiscal year 2027 begins. (The stopgap was necessary because Congress has passed none of the 12 FY 2027 appropriation bills.) The CR includes a temporary bar through December 11 on implementation of an OMB proposed rule to give political appointees veto authority over federal grants.
(2) TRUMP’S IRAN WAR – Day 200:
Trump’s unauthorized war against Iran has broadened and the effects have become more dire over the last week:
Current Status: Why Houthi control of the ‘Gate of Tears’ may be Iran’s biggest victory yet; Two of the most important corridors for international energy shipments are blocked by Iran and its proxies, oil prices are up and the global economy is reeling; and Gulf-Iran talks are postponed.
Trump Declined to Help Saudis Push Back Against Houthis: Iranian arms and advice helped Yemen’s Houthis seize key Red Sea city; Saudi leader asked Trump for military help against Houthis. US offered only intelligence.
Saudi Pipeline Attacked – threatening a key workaround to Iran’s Persian Gulf blockade.
Oil Prices Escalating: surging past $100 a barrel last week.
No End in Sight: Iran’s leaders believe they have little choice but to keep fighting until they’re confident Washington will be too wary to attack again in future
Cost to American Consumers over $100 billion: Higher gasoline and diesel costs since the start of the Iran war have cost American consumers over $100 billion.
(3) ARTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE (A.I.) FEARS GROW:
Top A.I. Leaders Call for Slowing Down A.I. Development. In an essay, the head of Anthropic laid out the rapidly advancing capabilities of artificial intelligence and said there needed to be greater safety controls across the industry.
How might rogue AI threaten humans? Participants in FRI forecasts mentioned (1) engineered pathogens, (2) autonomous weapons, or (3) AI-induced nuclear escalation. Read more on AI pathogens.r
Why It’s Difficult for Tech Companies to Rein In AI: Researchers say artificial intelligence is developing faster than the systems put in place to monitor and control it.
Obama Urges Democrats to Move A.I. Oversight to the Center of Their Agenda. During a private fund-raiser, the former president warned that the technology could be “dangerous” if not managed urgently and with a clear plan.
TRUMP REMAINS INDIFFERENT BUT CHINA IS FOCUSED: Monday morning, The Hill reported the president posted on Truth Social that the “only control or ‘guardrails’ that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!” However, China’s spy chief has warned that A.I. is a threat to communist party rule.
SPEAKER JOHNSON JOINS TRUMP IN SHIRKING RESPONSIBILIITY, BUT OPEN AI BACKS BIPARTISAN PROPOSAL: House Speaker Mike Johnson on Sunday insisted that developers — not Congress — are responsible for ensuring their products are safe. However, OpenAI backs a bipartisan House plan for third-party safety assessments that would require AI companies to work with independent safety assessors, although some in Congress believe independent evaluators aren’t enough and mandatory requirements are needed.
AI and HEALTHCARE: Federal projects are rolling out A.I. agents that offer therapy and prescribe medicine, raising concerns about safety and the influence of venture capital investors.
(4) MAJOR ECONOMIC, TRADE, TAX NEWS:
FED Meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow to decide on rates—with a decision to be announced Wednesday at 2pm EDT. Fed’s Warsh faces new pressure to hike rates after inflation heats up.
Corporate Tax Payments are Plummeting as Profits Soar: A generous tax break on capital investments Republicans created in 2025 wasn’t designed specifically for the AI boom, but hyperscalers are making the most of it.
Bond Markets: Bond market rebukes Treasury Secretary Bessent by sending borrowing costs ever higher; 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and markets; and Rising borrowing costs threaten to disrupt the stock market and slow the economy.
Crypto Bill Collapses: Crypto bill collapsed on the Senate floor today. Democrats said the legislation didn’t do enough to crack down on President Donald Trump’s potential conflicts of interest.
Tariffs and Trade: U.S. last week announced bans on some Canadian products (effective 9/29); and Canada imposed new tariffs on U.S. goods.
Inflation: US diesel prices soared past $6 a gallon, deepening the strain on haulers of everyday goods.
Oil Market Disruption: Trump officials say the oil-market disruption is temporary, but Chevron’s Mike Wirth and others warn global supplies are running low, with no respite in sight.
New Visa Fees Disrupt Flow of Needed Talent into the U.S.: H-1B visa demand plummeted in fallout from Trump’s $100,000 fee; and Births and immigration are slowing at the same time—the U.S. isn’t ready for what that means.
Small Business: Small companies say Trump plan guts their U.S. contract advantage.
State and Local Taxes: Read about the property tax revolt in nearly half the states.
(5) HEALTH and CLIMATE NEWS:
Number of Uninsured in U.S. is Spiking: There are about 27 million uninsured people in the U.S., and that number is projected to grow into the low 40 millions when the cuts in federal funding for Medicaid and ACA coverage fully kick in.
Trump’s Medicaid Cuts Reshaping U.S. Hospitals: Hospitals pursue deals to ensure survival as Trump’s Medicaid cuts loom. By fueling consolidation, the GOP’s health care cuts are reshaping health care.
Reforms Boost Medicare Costs: There are troubling new signs that the overhaul of Medicare drug coverage in the Inflation Reduction Act is dramatically driving up program spending…. (and) could force painful tradeoffs over the next decade as Medicare consumes a growing share of the nation’s debt.
Climate Rollback: EPA eliminated rule that limits planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions from power plants; and Pollution spikes in dozens of cities after U.S embassies stopped providing global air-monitoring data.
Trump Promises $500 Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) Rebate Checks for one million enrollees in 30 states in another pre-election scam to buy votes. He does not have legal authority to make the payments. More background.
Medicaid and Autism: Oz’s Medicaid fraud war room is prompting ‘aggressive’ state crackdowns… Vulnerable children are losing access.
Some Good News: Patients Who Fight Health Insurance Denials Often Win.
(6) POLITICAL, LEGAL, ETHICS, AND ELECTION NEWS:
Supreme Court Stops Trump’s Mail-In Ballot Restrictions: Monday’s 7-2 decision allows states to continue sending out mail ballots under the same processes they’ve used for years. The case has major implications because nearly one-third of the country votes by mail. The Supreme Court majority wrote that the administration’s push to implement the restrictions this year is likely to lose in court, though the brief emergency order didn’t detail its reasoning. Justice Brett Kavanaugh agreed to stop the restrictions only for this election, and two justices, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, dissented.
Fears of Federal Government Election Interference Remain: With seven weeks until Election Day, state and local officials are preparing for seized ballots and ICE agents at the polls.
Missouri Gerrymander Paused: The Supreme Court last Thursday paused a ruling by a federal judge in Missouri that would have allowed the state to use a new congressional map intended to give Republicans an additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming elections.
Immigration Law: New York City leads lawsuit against Trump’s ‘public charge’ immigration rule; Illegal deportations spike under Trump’s ICE push; and A generation of kids suffer as Trump destabilizes immigrant families.
Media and the First Amendment: How Trump is wielding power to stifle speech. Trump has harnessed agencies across the government to curtail press freedoms, a sweeping campaign that free speech advocates say will have lasting effects.
Census Politics: The Trump administration proposed a sweeping overhaul of how people in America are counted in the 2030 census.
Ethics: Donald Trump Jr.’s Bahamas wedding was secretly bankrolled by a Russian oligarch close to Putin.
(7) OTHER KEY U.S. DEVELOPMENTS:
U.S. Water Shortages: The U.S. is losing its ability to store water when it needs it most. Drought is emptying reservoirs. Wildfires and extreme rain are filling them with sediment.
National Parks Politicized: Trump administration blocks $25 million in funding for national parks.
Dept. of Homeland Security Falters: The department created to stop another 9/11 may no longer be equipped for counterterrorism work.
Veterans Intensify Fight Against Trump’s Arch: Opponents of the 250-foot triumphal arch project say it could disrupt military burials at Arlington, during construction and after its completion.
Trump’s Kennedy Center Appointees Vote to Close the Center: Trump appointees said the Center is facing “certain fiscal collapse” within weeks and insisted that adding President Donald Trump’s name may be the only way to avoid bankruptcy; but today (Tuesday), a judge again blocked adding Trump’s name as contrary to law. Following the judge’s ruling, the Kennedy Center Board voted to close, according to the AP.
(8) OTHER KEY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS:
Ukraine Faces Harsh Winter With No U.S. Aid: Ukraine braces for harsh winter as Russian attacks hit their economy; Putin warns Europe of war if peacekeeping troops are deployed to Ukraine; Trump blames Ukraine for diesel shortages as Kyiv aims to cut off fuel to invading Russian troops; Analysts say Iran War is a bigger factor in diesel shortages.
Genocide in Sudan – “World’s Worst Humanitarian Crisis”: Biden and Trump called it a genocide and then turned away… Trump has set the tone by cutting aid there.
Germany’s Far Right Resurgence: Germany’s Merz accuses far-right AfD of calling for ‘ethnic cleansing’.
Al-Qaeda Regroups in Afghanistan: Al-Qaeda regroups in Afghanistan, 25 years after 9/11. The terrorist organization and its offshoots have set up at least eight training sites over the past three years, taking advantage of the Taliban’s return to power.
China’s Booming Exports: China’s 25% export surge sets stage for record annual trade surplus.
(9) OTHER READS THAT MAY BE OF INTEREST:
Democracy is on the ballot in both America’s and Israel’s elections. Israel and the U.S. hold elections one week apart (October 27 and November 3). The fate of both democracies lies in the balance. – Friedman
Visit our digital library of fiscal and public policy resources.
Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: ckonigsberg@capitolpublicpolicy.com.
About the author: Charles S. Konigsberg J.D. served as Assistant Director, White House Office of Management and Budget; General Counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, where he had principal responsibility for managing federal budget and debt limit legislation; Minority Chief Counsel at the U.S. Senate Rules & Administration Committee where he advised the ranking member on budget, appropriations, trade, and tax legislation; Staff Attorney at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee where he had responsibility for federal fiscal law issues including the Impoundment Control Act and wrote the Senate’s first explanation of the congressional budget process; Director of Congressional Affairs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and AmeriCorps; and Staff Director of the only national bipartisan budget task force to agree on a unanimous long-term debt stabilization plan. He is admitted to the U.S. Supreme Court Bar, the District of Columbia Bar, and the Ohio Bar and is the author of three books:
1. Trillions: A Primer on Federal Spending, Taxes, the U.S. Debt Ceiling, and Fiscal Law (Matthew Bender, 2024). Click here to purchase. The 2026-2027 edition will be released this fall on Amazon.
2. Independent Voters will Decide America’s Future in 2024 and Beyond
3. America’s Priorities: How the U.S. Government Raises and Spends Trillions (2008)
Charles S. Konigsberg is President of Capitol Public Policy LLC, which provides consulting services on fiscal intelligence, budget reconciliation, appropriations, government shutdowns, the debt limit, mandatory spending, tax expenditures, as well as budget process training. Contact us at ckonigsberg@capitolpublicpolicy.com or (301) 509-5688.
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