TRILLIONS – Senate Acts to End Shutdown & Week in Review – Nov. 10 2025
Senate Approves Spending Package to End Shutdown But ACA Premiums Unaddressed; House Approval Still Needed; Effects of Shutdown Continue; Tariffs & Economy; Major Government Developments
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Estimated reading time of this week’s update: 14 minutes
(1) SHUTDOWN DAY 41: Senate voted 60-40 late Monday evening to send to the House a bill to end the shutdown, which includes three full-year appropriations bills, temporary (CR) funding through January 30, 2026 for agencies covered by the nine unfinished bills, backpay for furloughed and “excepted” federal workers, and reversal of shutdown layoffs.
Background: The Federal government was required by the Antideficiency Act to shut down on October 1st when the new fiscal year began because Congress had not passed any of the 12 regular funding bills for fiscal year (FY) 2026.
The House of Representatives in September had passed 217-212 a stopgap continuing resolution (“CR”) to provide temporary funding through November 21st, but the Senate failed to pass the House bill 14 times.
Most Senate Democrats had been withholding support from the House-passed CR to force negotiations with Republicans to extend expiring Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) health subsidies, and to restore appropriated funds President Trump’s budget office had illegally withheld.
Over the weekend, 7 Democratic Senators (Cortez-Masto, Durbin, Fetterman, Hassan, Kaine, Rosen, Shaheen) and one Independent (King) reached agreement with Republicans on a package to end the shutdown. The package advanced Sunday evening in an initial 60-40 vote and achieved final Senate passage Monday evening 60-40. The package consists of the following six components:
Three full-year spending bills for FY 2026:
Legislative Branch: Bill Text | Jt. Statement | R-SUMM | D-SUMM
Ag-Rural-FDA: Bill Text | Jt. Statement | R-SUMM | D-SUMM
Mil Con - VA: Bill Text | Jt. Statement | R-SUMM | D-SUMM | HSE D-STMT.
A continuing resolution (stopgap funding) through January 30, 2026, for agencies covered by the 9 unfinished appropriation bills. (If the 9 remaining bills are not completed by that time, another partial shutdown would occur.) Bill Text | Sec-by-Sec.
Program extensions: Bill Text | Sec-by-Sec: Divisions E-G.
Backpay for furloughed and “excepted” workers (section 116).
Reversal of mass layoffs announced during the shutdown (section 120).
Reimbursement of states for expenses incurred due to the federal shutdown (section 118).
How was the Senate impasse resolved? Seven Senate Democrats (and one Independent) agreed to support the spending package in exchange for a vague agreement by Majority Leader Thune to schedule a vote in December on a bill relating to ACA health insurance subsidies—the details of which are unspecified, passage of which would require 60 votes, House action on which is unlikely, and if passed would likely be vetoed by President Trump (who has repeatedly sought to dismantle the Affordable Care Act without proposing alternative coverage for the 24 million enrollees).
Will the Senate spending package pass the House? Probably, but Punchbowl News points out the Speaker Johnson faces a “multitude of challenges.”
What did the shutdown accomplish? In a word, nothing; the shutdown never should have happened. The 41-day (and counting) shutdown achieved none of its stated goals: no extension of enhanced ACA health subsidies, no restoration of appropriated funds illegally impounded by the Administration, and no restoration of Medicaid funds slashed in the July megabill (one of the early objectives of the shutdown).
Notably, last Friday, when Senate Democrats proposed a similar spending package that would have included a one-year extension of the ACA subsidies, the package was promptly rejected by Senate Republicans.
ACA Health Insurance Premiums Have Already Spiked: Since the Senate-passed spending package does not include legislation addressing the enhanced ACA subsidies, the enhanced subsidies will expire after December 31, 2025. Without congressional action, ACA premiums for beneficiaries will increase significantly, and others will lose eligibility entirely. Read how the rising premiums are affecting Americans.
Over the past weekend, President Trump endorsed a proposal from Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) to send the enhanced ACA insurance premium subsidies directly to beneficiaries as cash payments – a proposal you may see discussed over the next weeks as Republicans look for ways to respond to millions of constituents concerned about spiking premiums.
Analysis: The problem with the “cash” proposal is that the federal subsidies would no longer be used for the purchase of ACA health insurance plans, so when the cash is depleted for medical expenses and runs out, the beneficiaries would have no health coverage. Put simply, cash is not insurance.
(2) SHUTDOWN IS NOT OVER YET: The Shutdown is not over until the House passes the Senate’s bill and President Trump signs the package. In the meantime, the following adverse effects of the shutdown continue.
FEDERAL CIVILIAN WORKERS NOT PAID: 1.4 million civilian federal workers (670,000 furloughed and 730,000 “excepted workers”) received only partial pay in early October, missed a paycheck entirely in late October, and will miss another paycheck this Friday, Nov. 14 if the House has not acted and the President has not signed the bill.
Some workers are designated as “excepted” employees because their responsibilities impact the “safety of human life or the protection of property.” “Excepted” employees are required to work, but are not paid until appropriations are enacted (unless funds authorized outside the annual appropriations process are available to pay the excepted employees.)
More than 80 percent of federal employees are stationed outside the Washington DC metro area.
MILITARY PAY: 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and over 750,000 National Guard and reserve may miss a paycheck this Friday, Nov. 14, if the shutdown has not ended and funds are not transferred into military pay accounts.
FEDERAL CONTRACTORS are not being paid for work performed before or during the shutdown. Invoice processing is paused, causing significant cash flow challenges that can force firms to reduce hours, lay off workers, or leave the federal marketplace entirely.
SNAP FOOD BENEFITS IN CHAOS: On November 1, funds for SNAP (food stamp) benefits expired impacting 42 million Americans. States wanted the Administration to continue benefits using an emergency fund. The Administration refused and states sued. A federal judge ordered the Administration to tap the emergency fund and pay full benefits. Trump threatened to defy the order, then reversed course. An appeals court let the judge’s order stand. The Administration appealed to the Supreme Court which, in a procedural move, halted the judge’s order so the appeals court could address the merits of the case. Sunday night, the appeals court denied the Trump Administration’s efforts to stop the release of full funding for November’s SNAP payments. The Administration then appealed, again, on Monday to the Supreme Court—continuing to leave low-income families across the country unsure about whether and when they will receive November benefits.
INCREASING FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS: By Monday evening, U.S. airlines had canceled 2,100 flights due to air-traffic controller shortages. The FAA ordered airlines to cut flights 10 percent by this Friday, Nov. 14. President Trump today threatened to dock the pay of over-stressed, unpaid air-traffic controllers who do not return to work.
HOME ENERGY ASSISTANCE: The federal shutdown has delayed payments from the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), directly impacting millions of low-income households as winter begins. Many states, including Pennsylvania, New York, Minnesota, Alaska, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Wyoming, have notified LIHEAP recipients of delayed benefits, while some states are utilizing leftover funds as a stop gap. President Trump has proposed eliminating the LIHEAP program which helps nearly 6 million families annually pay for heating and cooling.
HEAD START: As of early November, nearly 140 Head Start programs in over 40 states and Puerto Rico—serving about 65,000 children—had not received their scheduled federal funding and 20 programs have been forced to close partially or completely. Read more.
EDUCATION IMPACT AID: School districts that rely on federal Impact Aid—including those on military bases or Native American lands—face immediate cash flow problems, risking operational and staffing cuts.
HIGHER EDUCATION: Colleges and universities are facing processing delays for federal student aid (FAFSA, Pell Grants), research funding lapses, and lack of federal work-study payments.
CONGRESS’S POWER OF THE PURSE DIMINISHED: The Administration’s nearly year-long assault on Congress’s constitutional authority over the federal treasury has intensified during the shutdown, with the President’s budget office aggressively moving funds between federal accounts without the legal authority that only Congress can provide. Read more.
FEDERAL COURTS: After exhausting non-appropriated fee funding, federal courts have continued only “excepted” activities—those necessary for constitutional functions and public safety. Many court staff, clerks, and non-essential employees have been furloughed or are working without pay, while federal judges remain on duty. The extent of disruption varies by district. Some courts (e.g., DC, California, Arizona) have designated all staff as essential to keep cases moving. Others have scaled back significantly, risking backlogs and delays in hearings, jury trials, and paperwork processing.
LOSS OF ECONOMIC DATA: Bloomberg reports that the “data fog” is intensifying for the Federal Reserve as the shutdown delays two monthly jobs reports and inflation numbers critical to the Fed’s decisions.
STATE-SPECIFIC IMPACTS: NPR has posted state-specific shutdown impacts HERE.
(3) TARIFFS AND THE ECONOMY:
LAYOFFS AT “RECESSION-LIKE LEVELS” THROUGH OCTOBER: While jobs numbers are currently unavailable due to the shutdown, the Washington Post reports that private sector estimates indicate 1.1 million job cuts so far this year, the highest since the pandemic.
LOW-INCOME SHOPPERS CUT SPENDING AND BUSINESSES WORRY: The New York Times reports that “a delay in SNAP benefits mixed with a decline in foot traffic has many stores, restaurant and food processors concerned about sales.”
SCOTUS HEARING ON TRUMP TARIFFS: Last Wednesday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the legal challenge to President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to declare economic emergencies and impose global tariffs. It is always risky to predict an outcome based on questions and comments from the Justices, however, the outcome may turn on whether particular justices see the tariffs as fundamentally a tax (which is clearly what the drafters of the Constitution intended in Article I) or a tool the President may use to accomplish foreign policy objectives (which clearly is not what the drafters intended).
HALF OF U.S. IMPORTS NOW HAVE STEEP TARIFFS: According to a New York Times analysis last week, almost half of U.S. imports now have steep tariffs. The Times analysis is worth a read if you want a plain English overview of Trump’s chaotic trade announcements, changes, backtracking and exemptions—and where tariffs currently stand.
HOW THE U.S. IS FALLING BEHIND IN SHIPPING: According to an analysis in Semafor, China is pulling way ahead of the U.S. in maritime shipping capabilities.
TRUMP’S TARIFF “DIVIDENDS”: President Trump is again suggesting election year payments of $2,000 to all taxpayers as a sort of “dividend” from tariff revenues. This is nonsense; the extra cash doesn’t exist.
In FY 2025, Congress enacted $1.8 trillion more in spending than was raised in revenues—creating a deficit and necessitating borrowing.
Tariffs are estimated to have raised less than $200 billion of the revenues received by the Treasury.
Therefore, the net effect of Trump’s tariffs was to leave us with a $1.8 trillion deficit, rather than a deficit closer to $2.0 trillion.
There is no extra tariff money available to be sent out to taxpayers. We simply have a slightly smaller—but still enormous and unsustainable—deficit.
If Congress enacts Trump’s dividend foolishness to gain political points in the midterm elections, Treasury will have to borrow the money required to make these fiscally irresponsible $2,000 payments to taxpayers—which will add to an already dangerous public debt.
(4) OTHER MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS GOVERNMENT:
Trump’s Budget Office Sows Turmoil in Public Health: KFF Health News reports, “Since most federal funds for public health flow to states, (OMB Director) Vought is rivaling (RFK Jr.) in his ability to upend government-led efforts to keep Americans healthy. In Texas, CDC funds to stem a measles outbreak weren’t available until after the crisis had subsided and two children had died. A project to protect Alabamans from raw sewage and hookworm was abandoned. People with HIV have had to delay medical care as clinics scale back hours. Time-dependent surveys on HIV and maternal mortality were halted… Tobacco prevention programs lapsed. Initiatives to protect older adults at risk of falling have been harried.”
Americans’ Trust in Government Nears 5-Decade Lows: Semafor reports on a new Gallup poll, finding only 32 percent of U.S. adults have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in Congress, while only 41 percent say the same of the executive branch and only 49 percent of the judicial branch. This is serious; democracy and civil society require trust in public institutions.
Trump Unveils Deal to Expand Coverage and Lower Costs on Obesity Drugs:
President Donald Trump unveiled a deal last Thursday with drugmakers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to expand coverage and reduce prices for the popular, but costly obesity treatments Zepbound and Wegovy, reports the AP. (You can decide whether this announcement was timed to distract from the release of skyrocketing Affordable Care Act premiums.)Fact Check on SNAP: With the interruption of SNAP (food stamp) benefits, a lot of misinformation has been circulating about undocumented immigrants collecting benefits. Current law: undocumented immigrants are ineligible for SNAP benefits. In fact, legal immigrants—green card holders—typically must wait five years to become eligible for benefits in most states. There has also been a lot of misinformation about the number of SNAP beneficiaries. During the last year of President Trump’s first term, the number of SNAP enrollees was 42 million, equal to the current number.
Ethics and Democracy:
(5) THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTED READS:
Do Dumb Ideas Ever Die? - NYT
About the author: Charles S. Konigsberg, J.D., served as Assistant Director at the White House Office of Management and Budget for three successive Budget Directors; General Counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee; Minority Chief Counsel at the U.S. Senate Rules Committee; Staff Attorney at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee; Director of Congressional Affairs at CFPB and AmeriCorps; and Staff Director of a national bipartisan budget task force.
He is author of the book, Trillions: A Primer on Federal Spending, Taxes, the U.S. Debt Ceiling, and Fiscal Law. Click here to purchase.
He is also Publisher of:
Appropriations.com which tracks the 12 appropriation bills and presidential impoundment developments each day;
andGovBudget.com which tracks major developments, by subject area, each day including: Law & Democracy | Cut Tracker | WH-OMB-DOGE | Economic News | Federal Taxes | Tariffs | Health and Human Services Programs | Debt, Deficits and Debt Limit | Discretionary Spending Programs | Mandatory Spending Programs | Immigration | Disabilities Programs | Defense | Climate/Energy | Budget Process
Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: ckonigsberg@capitolpublicpolicy.com.