HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!
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Estimated reading time of this week’s update: 15 minutes
(1) APPROPRIATIONS: Status of the 9 Unfinished Bills as Congress aims to avoid a January 31, 2026, partial shutdown.
Background: On November 10, 2025 the Senate passed 60-40 the Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026 as an amendment to HR 5371. On November 12, 2025 the House passed the funding bill 222-209, and the bill was signed that evening. Included in the bill is temporary stopgap funding (CR language) for agencies funded by the 9 unfinished appropriation bills, lasting through January 30, 2026. A partial shutdown will occur on January 31, 2026, if any of the 9 bills have not been finished and additional stopgap funding has not been provided.
Yesterday, Senate Appropriations Republicans released bill and report language for two of the unfinished bills, but did so without bipartisan agreement:
Senate Appropriations Republicans released the Energy-Water Development bill without bipartisan agreement: Text | Rpt | Dem Stmt
Senate Appropriations Republicans released the Financial Services, General Govt (FSGG) bill without bipartisan agreement: Text | Rpt | Dem Stmt
House and Senate Appropriators are currently negotiating a package of bills to bring to the Floor and complete prior to the Christmas recess. Senate Republicans reportedly would like to combine Commerce-Justice-Science, Interior-Environment, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD, and Defense, while the House favors a smaller package of three bills.
(2) THE SPIKE IN ACA HEALTH PREMIUMS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED—DOUBLING 2026 COSTS FOR MILLIONS OF ENROLLEES: The Senate will vote on extending subsidies in December, with multiple proposals under consideration and the GOP currently split.
Background: The Affordable Care Act (ACA, “Obamacare”) was aimed at reducing the number of uninsured Americans in three key ways:
1. The ACA prohibits insurance companies from denying coverage or charging higher premiums due to preexisting medical conditions.
2. The ACA provides federal funds to states to expand Medicaid for individuals and families slightly above the poverty line; 41 states have accepted federal funds for Medicaid expansion.
3. The ACA provides federal tax credits to subsidize the purchase of private health insurance for individuals and families above the Medicaid eligibility threshold. Enrollees select health plans offered through “marketplace exchanges” operated by state governments (or the federal government for states that have not set up exchanges).
The original ACA subsidies were available for people (above the Medicaid threshold) with incomes up to 400% of the poverty level ($62,600 for an individual and $128,600 for a family of four in 2025).
During COVID, Congress enacted “enhanced” ACA subsidies to make coverage more affordable. The enhancements reduced net premiums to zero for some people with low incomes and made subsidies available to people with higher incomes for the first time—permitting anyone to qualify if standard health plans in their area would cost more than 8.5% of their income. These enhancements more than doubled the number of ACA enrollments (to over 24 million).
The enhancements were originally enacted for two years, but were later extended through 2025 and will expire December 31, 2025, without congressional action.
The currently advertised ACA plans for 2026 are—on average—more than doubling premium costs to enrollees due to the expiration; and between 3.8 and 4.8 million people are expected to become uninsured in 2026 (according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office and Urban Institute).
The healthcare affordability crisis is not limited to ACA enrollees. Politico reports that the 165 million people with employer-sponsored plans are also facing fast rising premiums—rising on average 6 to 7 percent in 2026.
During the government shutdown, Democrats pressed to include extension of ACA enhanced subsidies in the spending law reopening the government. President Trump and GOP leadership refused and instead Senate Republican Leader Thune offered (and a sufficient number of Democrats accepted) a promise to allow a Senate vote by mid-December on extending enhanced subsidies (60 votes required for passage).
In anticipation of the December Senate debate, various proposals and plans have been circulating, including those below. In the last two days, there have been reports that President Trump might be willing to support a short-term extension of enhanced subsidies with new limits and cost-sharing requirements, although he is getting pushback from congressional Republicans.
1. SEN. CASSIDY’S CASH PROPOSAL: A proposal from Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)—Chairman of the Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee—would send the “enhanced portion” of ACA subsidies directly to low-income beneficiaries as cash payments into health savings accounts (HSAs). The HSA funds could be used to pay for deductibles and copays (but not for premiums) and would be available only for beneficiaries currently enrolled in certain high-deductible ACA plans.
2. SEN. SCOTT’S “FREEDOM ACCOUNT” PROPOSAL: An alternative proposal from Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) would let the enhanced subsidies expire, and allow states—at their option—to convert the original ACA subsidies (plus additional funds for low-income beneficiaries) into cash payments deposited into new “freedom accounts” for purchase of insurance (except insurance covering abortion or gender transition). States not electing this approach would retain the original ACA subsidies, but the enhanced subsidies would be gone—boosting premiums for millions and leaving millions more uninsured.
3. HOUSE PROBLEM SOLVERS CAUCUS PROPOSAL: The GOP Co-Chair of the Caucus, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) is offering another possible compromise: an extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits, with income limits and required minimum premium payments; new flexibility for health savings accounts; and adding a stalled bipartisan package overhauling the role of pharmaceutical benefit managers.
4. ANOTHER HOUSE BIPARTISAN EXTENSION PROPOSAL: A bipartisan group of House lawmakers is floating another compromise that would: extend the enhanced tax credits through 2027 for enrollees earning less than $200,000 per year for a family of four; phase out the subsidies for enrollees earning between $200,000 and $300,000 for a family of four; codify the federal government’s authority to remove bad actors from ACA marketplaces who fraudulently apply for subsidy tax credits; and extend open enrollment to May 15, 2026, because many would-be recipients may have been discouraged from purchasing 2026 health insurance by sticker shock over high premiums.
This is the most sensible approach to avoid millions having their premiums double in January and millions more losing coverage entirely. The House “bipartisan extension” proposal would avoid an immediate affordability and coverage crisis, but should be amended to include appointment of a Bipartisan Healthcare Reform and Affordability Commission. America needs to address the broader affordability issues in a fully bipartisan manner.
(3) TARIFFS AND THE ECONOMY:
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN: CNBC reported today that consumer confidence hit its lowest level since April as job worries grow.
TRUMP’S APPROVAL ON ECONOMY DOWN: President Trump’s approval on the economy is down 15 points since March.
WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT A “NO-IMMIGRATION ECONOMY” LOOKS LIKE—AND IT’S LIKELY TO BE SLOWER GROWTH: A new analysis in the New York Times, reports that “net immigration in 2025 is on track to be close to zero or even negative — more people will probably end up leaving the United States than entering for the first time in decades. Fewer immigrants overall means fewer immigrants entering the work force and fewer immigrants spending money,” (emphasis added)
NO INFLATION STATS FOR OCTOBER: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced Friday that it would not produce its highly anticipated monthly inflation report for October after being unable to collect key data during the government shutdown.
ELECTRICITY BILLS SPIKING: The Washington Post reports that average electricity costs have risen 11 percent since January, causing more Americans to have their power shut off. One of the reasons electric bills are soaring: data centers’ spiraling demand. Notably, the Trump Administration, in its 2026 budget proposal, seeks to eliminate the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) which keeps the power on for 6 million low-income Americans.
MORE EVIDENCE OF K-ECONOMY: Bloomberg reports that retailers describe U.S. consumers as more economically divided than ever, with “wealthier shoppers still splurging and lower-income Americans cutting back,” particularly Latino and young Americans.
ROLLING BACK TARIFFS, QUIETLY: Despite the stubborn refusal of Trump Administration officials to admit the obvious—that tariff taxes on imports increase prices—the Administration is quietly beginning to roll back some tariffs: lifting or sharply reducing tariffs on more than 200 imported food products including coffee, beef, bananas, tomatoes, and other staples; creating or expanding exemptions for certain sectors; and holding off on threatened tariff hikes on Canadian goods. But CNBC points out that Trump’s tariff rollbacks won’t lower grocery prices right away.
Despite the rollbacks, as of November 15, CBO estimates the effective tariff rate for imported goods remains 14 percentage points higher than one year ago.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TAKING STAKES IN PRIVATE COMPANIES: The New York Times reports the Trump Administration is spending billions to get equity stakes in private companies. Politico reports on the beginnings of bipartisanship pushback against Administration efforts to take ownership stakes in private mineral producers.
ARGENTINA AID PACKAGE: Remember the Administration’s aid package for Trump’s populist protégé in Argentina, Javier Milei? The Wall Street Journal reports that this deal—like so many other announced “deals” of this Administration—is being reworked, this time at the insistence of U.S. banks.
CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY: Politico reports that House Financial Services Chairman French Hill is blocking a bipartisan Senate proposal that would temporarily ban a central bank digital currency.
FACT-CHECKING TRUMP’S CLAIMS ON AFFORDABILITY: The New York Times fact checks the President’s claims on prices.
(4) OTHER MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS GOVERNMENT:
SHUTTING DOWN THE DEPT. OF EDUCATION: The Trump Administration is trying to score political points by “shutting down the Department of Education.” What they are really doing is moving programs to other departments and, as Politico reports, that hasn’t gone very well. Moreover, some GOP lawmakers are getting nervous about disruptions to critical education programs.
RFK Jr. ORDERS CDC TO POST VACCINE CONSPIRACY THEORY: Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “surrendered its steadfast adherence to vaccine science,” stating now that “studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism” – a conspiracy theory without a shred of evidence. The Washington Post points out that this action blatantly violates a pledge that Kennedy made to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana), who delivered the key vote for his confirmation, that the “CDC will not remove statements on their website pointing out that vaccines do not cause autism.” Fact Check: Revised CDC website about Autism and Vaccines is not evidence-based. FactCheck.org.
SSA BACKS AWAY FROM DISABILITY CHANGES: The Social Security Administration has backed away from plans to place new limits on disability benefits.
PRIVATIZE FAA? – NO! The Washington Post editorial board published the bizarre notion on Sunday that the chaos of the recent government shutdown should lead us to privatizing air traffic control. This is ludicrous: putting public airline safety in the hands of a contractor whose priorities are cutting costs and maximizing quarterly earnings makes no sense—not to mention the dangers of putting our entire air traffic control system in the hands of a self-serving billionaire accountable to no one. (Remember DOGE?) A simple and direct way to avoid future funding interruptions is to make air traffic control a mandatory spending program with a permanent appropriation. With that simple change, Congress would ensure that air traffic control funding would never again be interrupted. Yes, Washington Post, air safety is too important to be vulnerable to annual funding interruptions; so, fund it permanently, not annually.
NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENTS CHALLENGED: Last week, a federal district judge ordered a halt to “unlawful” Guard deployment in D.C., but it won’t take effect until next month pending Trump Administration appeal. U.S. District Judge Jia M. Cobb wrote in her opinion that the deployment was “unlawful,” has caused D.C. “irreparable harm to its sovereign powers under the Home Rule Act” — the 1973 law that gave D.C. residents their own elected government — and has “infringed upon the District’s right to govern itself.” In addition to D.C., suits have been filed challenging deployments in Los Angeles, Portland, Chicago, and Memphis, and some cases are under review at the appellate-level. Supreme Court review is likely, down the road. Read more: How Courts Have Ruled in Challenges to Trump’s National Guard Deployments.
SUPREME COURT TEMPORARILY LIFTS LOWER COURT ORDER BLOCKING TEXAS GERRYMANDERING: The Supreme Court temporarily lifted a lower court order ruling that the new Texas congressional map is racially biased. In the past, the Court’s conservative majority has blocked similar rulings when issued too close to elections. If the Supreme Court’s position holds, we end up with the ludicrous result that gerrymandering is immune from challenge as long as it’s done close to an election.
TRUMP’S USE OF DOJ TO TARGET POLITICAL OPPONENTS: A federal district judge yesterday dismissed the indictments of former FBI Director James Comey and NY Attorney General Letitia James after finding that the prosecutor was illegally appointed. (The beginning of long series of appeals and motions.)
CHAOS AT FEMA: The Administration again denied FEMA disaster relief for Illinois, Gov. Pritzker says. Officials in jurisdictions led by Democrats have viewed the denials of aid as politically driven. Also, see reporting on internal dissent in the Administration about future of FEMA.
WHITE HOUSE MANEUVER KEEPS OMB’S VOUGHT IN CHARGE OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU, and federal consumer financial protections on the road to elimination.
ETHICS NEWS: Trump whitewashes brutal Saudi murder of WP columnist; Floor fight over corrupt spending provision allowing collection of millions by Senators suing DOJ; and Meet the GOP lawmakers who killed solar subsidies after using them.
(5) THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTED READS:
We’re seeing what a no immigration economy looks like. - NYT
Ukraine needs Russia’s frozen $200 billion immediately. – WP
Welcome to the new era of U.S. debt, where the bond market is king. - PGPF
America’s deepening affordability crisis summed up in 5 charts – CBS News
About the author: Charles S. Konigsberg, J.D., served as Assistant Director at the White House Office of Management and Budget for three successive Budget Directors; General Counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee; Minority Chief Counsel at the U.S. Senate Rules Committee; Staff Attorney at the U.S. Senate Budget Committee; Director of Congressional Affairs at CFPB and AmeriCorps; and Staff Director of a national bipartisan budget task force.
He is author of the book, Trillions: A Primer on Federal Spending, Taxes, the U.S. Debt Ceiling, and Fiscal Law. Click here to purchase.
He is also Publisher of:
Appropriations.com which tracks the 12 appropriation bills and presidential impoundment developments each day;
andGovBudget.com which tracks major developments, by subject area, each day including: Law & Democracy | Cut Tracker | WH-OMB-DOGE | Economic News | Federal Taxes | Tariffs | Health and Human Services Programs | Debt, Deficits and Debt Limit | Discretionary Spending Programs | Mandatory Spending Programs | Immigration | Disabilities Programs | Defense | Climate/Energy | Budget Process
Speaking engagements and press interviews can be scheduled by calling: (301) 509-5688. Email comments, suggestions, and questions to: ckonigsberg@capitolpublicpolicy.com.