Update: TRILLIONS Weekly - Feb 25, 2026
A 7-Minute Fact Check of President Trump's false and misleading claims during the State of the Union Address.
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The Associated Press identified the key Trump assertions, below. The facts we provide in response are hyperlinked to official, nonpartisan sources.
Economy
Trump: “When I last spoke in this chamber 12 months ago, I had just inherited a nation in crisis, with a stagnant economy.”
Facts: Economic growth (adjusted for inflation) was 2.8% in 2024 (Biden’s last year) and fell to 2.2% in 2025.
Trump: “Incomes are rising fast, the roaring economy is roaring like never before.”
Facts: Federal Reserve data shows after-tax income growth (adjusted for inflation) running at 2.4% at the end of 2024, then slowing to 1% by late 2025.
Job growth in 2025 was dramatically weaker than in 2024—with average monthly growth of 15,000 in 2025 compared to monthly growth of 168,000 in 2024.
Tariffs
Trump: Tariff revenues are “saving our country, the kind of money we’re taking in.”
Facts: Tariff revenues are not “saving our country.” Before the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs, CBO estimated that the Trump tariff taxes (imposed on U.S. companies and consumers) would raise about $3 trillion over a decade. That doesn’t even offset the $4.7 trillion debt increase from his 2025 tax and spending bill. On an annual basis, Trump’s tariff revenues—which average out to about $300 billion per year—would not come close to “saving our country” from annual deficits approaching $2 trillion per year and on track to reach $3 trillion per year in less than a decade.
Trump: “Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax.’’
Facts: Not even close. Prior to the Supreme Court’s decision, total tariffs were estimated to provide only 7% of total revenues in 2026, and 5% in 2036. After the Court’s decision, those small percentages will be even less. Take a look at our Trillions Weekly overview of federal revenues; tariffs mathematically will never come close to replacing individual, payroll, and corporate taxes. Nineteenth Century America did not have 350 million people with a vast and complex infrastructure, and seniors routinely living into their 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s receiving income support and modern healthcare through Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
Pharmaceutical Prices
Trump: “I took prescription drugs, a very big part of health care, from the highest price in the entire world to the lowest. That’s a big achievement. The result is price differences of 300, 400, 500, 600% and more.”
Facts: First, no price can be reduced more than 100%, since a 100% reduction in price would be $0. Second, the recently rolled out TrumpRx, provides discounts on a small number of brand name drugs—but it’s not a game changer because, in most cases, people were already accessing similar deals on Good Rx or paying lower prices for generic drugs. Third, the Medicare program negotiating with drug companies for lower prices was put in place by the Biden Administration in the Inflation Reduction Act. Fourth, Trump’s aim to pressure pharmaceutical companies to charge U.S. customers no more than customers in other developed countries is not something he has legal authority to impose. His playbook has been to use tariff threats to pressure everyone—foreign countries and U.S. companies—but the Supreme Court has now removed that arrow from Trump’s quiver.
Investment
Trump: “I secured commitments for more than $18 trillion pouring in from all over the globe.”
Facts: This is a made-up number. According to the Associated Press, that figure is “exaggerated, highly speculative and far higher than the actual sum.” The Peterson Institute for International Economics in January reviewed $5 trillion of these so-called commitments from the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Persian Gulf States and concluded “they are clouded with uncertainty.” Moreover, last week’s Supreme Court ruling has effectively neutered Trump’s ability to use wildly punitive tariffs to force actions by trading partners.
Jobs
Trump: “More Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country.”
Facts: Of course more people are working, because our population is growing. The relevant question is what percentage are unemployed. The unemployment rate is currently 4.3%—higher than the 4.0% when Biden left office and the 3.4% (a 50-year low) that occurred in 2023.
Crime
Trump: “Last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. This is the biggest decline. Think of it in recorded history, the lowest number in over 125 years.”
Facts: Trump is taking credit for a trend that began in 2023. Crime surged during the pandemic, with homicides increasing nearly 30% in 2020, but violent crime began trending down in 2022, post-pandemic.
Immigration
Trump: “We will always allow people to come in legally, people that will love our country and will work hard to maintain our country.”
Facts: No, Trump has imposed sharply tighter restrictions on immigration and refugee admissions to the U.S.—imposing great costs on our economy and on families attempting to reunite. He suspended the U.S. refugee program on his first day in office and later resumed it at a record-low annual cap of 7,500—with most slots limited to white South Africans. He has also placed severe restrictions on who can travel or emigrate to the U.S. from 38 countries.
Taxes
Trump: “With the great big beautiful bill, we gave you no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and no tax on Social Security.”
Facts: No, last year’s tax cut bill did not change taxation of Social Security benefits; Senate rules do not permit filibuster-proof “budget reconciliation” legislation to change Social Security laws. Instead, a modest new tax deduction was provided to seniors which expires after 2028. The bill also provided new exclusions from income, through 2028, for certain tip income and certain overtime pay—but the exclusions are subject to complex regulations determining what qualifies as tip and overtime income.
Elections
Trump: “I’m asking you to approve the Save America Act to stop illegal aliens and others who are unpermitted persons from voting in our sacred American elections. The cheating is rampant in our elections.”
Facts: Blatantly false; Trump has never produced a shred of evidence of “rampant cheating.” In more than 60 lawsuits filed after the 2020 election, judges looked at the allegations Trump was making and determined they were without merit. Judges at every level—including many Republican and Trump‑appointed judges—rejected these suits because the plaintiffs did not provide credible evidence of widespread or outcome‑changing fraud, offering only speculation, hearsay, or minor administrative complaints. Extensive research reveals that voter fraud is very rare.
By insisting, without evidence, that the system was “rigged,” Trump impugns the professionalism and integrity of thousands of Republican, Democratic, and nonpartisan election administrators and poll workers, some of whom have since faced threats and harassment tied to these false narratives.
Peace-Making
Trump: “My first 10 months I ended eight wars.”
Facts: As explained below, this claim is mostly exaggeration and misstatement, and more troubling, ignores President Trump’s ongoing threats to global stability through the worsening war in Ukraine, threatened war against Iran, unnecessary operations in Venezuela, and illegal threats against Greenland and NATO.
Serbia and Kosovo were not at war in 2025.
Egypt and Ethiopia were not at war in 2025 and their tensions over an Ethiopian dam project continue.
Israel and Hamas have a shaky ceasefire for which Trump deserves credit, but peace has not been achieved, with Hamas refusing to disarm as required by stage 2 of the ceasefire agreement.
Israel and Iran: Yes, Trump negotiated a cease-fire to the 12-day war, but the U.S. is now threatening to invade Iran and cause a broader Mideast war.
India has denied U.S. mediation of its dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir.
Fighting continues between Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have affirmed their commitment to eventually sign a peace treaty—but that has not yet happened.
Cambodia and Thailand signed a ceasefire on July, 28, 2025 for which Cambodia thanked Trump but Thailand says Malaysia and ASEAN were the main brokers; that ceasefire broke down and a second ceasefire was signed December 27, 2025 brokered by ASEAN, but in recent days ceasefire-violating shooting has continued.
In addition, to the misstatements and exaggerations, actions have been taken that undermine global stability:
The Russia-Ukraine war—the largest land war in Europe since WWII— worsened in 2025 with tens of thousands of casualties on both sides and a sharp rise in Ukrainian civilian casualties, while “U.S. aid to Ukraine declined dramatically.”
The U.S. launched a military operation in Venezuela without congressional authorization or national security necessity, without any linkage to the fentanyl crisis, and without leading to any meaningful progress toward Venezuelan democracy.
The U.S. threatened hostilities against the Danish territory Greenland (and by extension NATO)—without national security necessity or congressional authorization.
