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Key Debt Ceiling Developments

These resources will be available to paid subscribers only beginning March 1, 2026 (only $8/month or $50/year, and 20% off if you subscribe by January 31, 2026). (If you forget our substack address, you can always find us at TrillionsWeekly.com.)

This webpage provides real-time updates on significant debt limit developments by Charles S. Konigsberg J.D., Publisher of TrillionsWeekly.com and former General Counsel for the U.S. Senate Finance Committee where he had primary responsibility for managing debt limit legislation. Contact: info@capitolpublicpolicy.com.

  • For daily tracking of the public debt, link to Treasury’s Debt-to-Penny webpage.

  • X-Date is a reference to a projected date when Treasury lacks authority, due to the debt limit, to raise sufficient cash to fulfill all U.S. legal and financial obligations.

2025

2024

2023

  • X-Date – Avoided with congressional passage of HR 3746, the Biden-McCarthy debt limit agreement which suspends the debt limit through January 1, 2025.

  • Sat, Jun 3: President Biden signed H.R. 3746, the Fiscal Responsibility Act which suspends the public debt limit through January 1, 2025, and increases the limit on January 2, 2025, to accommodate the obligations issued during the suspension period; establishes new discretionary spending limits for FY 2024 and FY 2025 that slows the growth in defense spending and reduces nondefense spending, appropriates funding for the VA Toxic Exposures Fund, and rescinds unobligated COVID-19 funds; modestly expands work requirements for SNAP and TANF; accelerates environmental review processes; reduces funds for IRS enforcement initiatives, and terminates the COVID-19 pause in federal student loan payments at the end of August 2023. The bill has estimated total budget savings of $1.5 trillion over 10 years due primarily to lower levels of discretionary spending as compared to what discretionary programs would have costed if fully adjusted for inflation in each of the next 10 years.

  • Fri. Jun 2: President Biden address from the Oval Office

  • Thurs, Jun 1: Senate passed by a vote of 63-36 HR 3746, the Biden-McCarthy debt limit agreement (summarized below) clearing the bill for the President’s signature.

  • Wed, May 31: House easily passed 314-117 H.R. 3746, the Biden-McCarthy debt limit agreement, advancing the bill to the Senate. A large majority of 149 Republicans and 185 Democrats supported the bill. Treasury released: Description of Extraordinary Measures.

  • Tues, May 30, 8:50pm: House Rules Committee voted 7-6 to send to the Floor for a Wednesday vote H.R. 3746, the Biden-McCarthy budget agreement.

  • Tues, May 30: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its analysis of the budgetary effects of HR 3746.

  • Sat, May 27 pm: White House and Speaker McCarthy released debt limit bill language Saturday evening: HR 3746.

  • Sat, May 27: President Biden and Speaker McCarthy announced an agreement in principle.

  • Thurs, May 25: House Freedom Caucus released a letter urging Speaker McCarthy to push for additional caucus priorities in the ongoing budget talks. And Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) has threatened to filibuster any debt limit bill that “doesn’t contain substantial spending and budgetary reforms.”

  • Tues, May 23/pm: As reported by the Washington Post “The Treasury Department has asked federal agencies whether they can make upcoming payments at a later date…. (however) Treasury has not asked federal agencies to postpone payments beyond their due dates…”

  • Tues, May 23: As reported by CNN, “House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Republicans during a closed-door meeting Tuesday that they’re ‘nowhere near’ a bipartisan deal with President Joe Biden.” A key issue separating the negotiators is the White House proposal for a nominal spending freeze in FY 2024 vs. the House GOP insistence on nominal spending cuts. From the White House perspective, they have already proposed significant spending cuts relative to an inflation-adjusted baseline that continues current programs and services; however, the GOP negotiators want significant reductions in dollar levels compared to 2023. Also at issue is the number of years to be subject to prospective spending caps, whether and how to impose work requirements on particular benefit programs, and whether increased revenues should be on the table. Notably, the talks are focusing on top-line levels for nondefense discretionary spending, which is only 15% of the budget. Both sides have already agreed that Social Security and Medicare (together more than a third of the budget) are off-limits; and the GOP has said defense discretionary spending (13% of the budget) is off-limits (defense received a 10% budget increase in 2023).

  • Mon, May 22 evening: President Biden and Speaker McCarthy met at the White House late Monday to discuss the debt ceiling standoff. McCarthy said “we don’t have an agreement yet.”

  • Sun, May 21: As reported by Reuters, “President Joe Biden on Sunday called Republicans’ latest offers in talks on lifting the government’s debt ceiling ‘unacceptable,’ but said he would be willing to cut spending together with tax adjustments to reach a deal. He said he would speak to top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on his flight home from his meeting with leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) rich nations in Hiroshima, Japan.”

  • Sat, May 20: White House Statement from Communications Director Ben LaBolt calling the Republican position “galling,” and urging discussion of both spending cuts and tax increases.

  • Fri, May 19 – evening: Roll Call reports that debt limit talks have resumed.

  • Fri., May 19: Debt limit negotiator Rep. Garret Graves (R-La), one of Speaker McCarthy’s chief negotiators, told reporters Friday morning, “We’ve decided to press pause because it’s just not productive,” referring to the debt ceiling negotiations. According to Roll Call, Graves said he didn’t know yet if the negotiating team planned to meet again.

  • Fri., May 19: House Progressive Caucus sent a letter to President Biden urging him “to fulfill the Executive’s Constitutional duty to faithfully and impartially administer the funds already enacted by law at the direction of Congress. We encourage you to invoke the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which specifically states that ‘the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred…shall not be questioned,’ to make federal payments on time.”

  • Fri., May 19: According to Politico, “Senior Biden officials have told progressive activists and lawmakers in recent days that they do not see the 14th Amendment — which says the ‘validity of the public debt’ cannot be questioned — as a viable means of circumventing debt ceiling negotiations.” Publisher’s note: The “14th amendment option” is distinct from the “faithful execution” option which argues that recent, specific appropriations laws override the prior (and nonspecific) debt limit law.

  • Thurs., May 18: As negotiations continue between the White House and House Republicans, 11 Senators, led by Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) sent a letter to the President highlighting concerns about the House-passed bill and urging him to invoke the 14th Amendment which some have argued invalidates a statutory limit on the debt.

  • Wed., May 17: President Biden departed DC for the G-7 meeting in Japan; he will cut his trip short and return to Washington this Sunday for ongoing negotiations. In the meantime, his OMB Director and senior advisors are continuing negotiations with House Republicans on a potential deal to cap spending, rescind remaining COVID funds, and impose work requirements on certain programs. According to Politico, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries dismissed Republicans’ work requirement proposals as “entirely unreasonable.”

  • Tues., May 16: President Biden, VP Harris, and congressional leaders met at the White House to review options developed by staff.

  • Mon., May 15: In a new letter to Congress Treasury Secretary Yellen said, “we still estimate that Treasury will likely no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1.” Yellen added, “we have already seen Treasury’s borrowing costs increase substantially for securities maturing in early June.”

  • Thurs., May 11: Treasury Secretary Yellen called the option of declaring the debt limit to be a violation of the 14th Amendment “legally questionable” reported the Washington Post. In addition, the second meeting of the President and congressional leaders, which had been scheduled for Friday, 5/12, was postponed.

  • Tues., May 9: President Biden met at the White House at 4pm with the bipartisan congressional leadership to discuss the debt ceiling. According to AP: “House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Tuesday after meeting with President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that he ‘didn’t see any new movement’ toward ending a months-long impasse over raising the nation’s borrowing limit and averting a potential first-ever U.S. default….Biden…reinforced his opposition to allowing the country’s full faith and credit to be held ‘hostage’ to negotiations — while affirming his willingness to hold talks on the budget only after default is no longer a threat.” Separately, President Biden said he is willing to look “months down the road” at the 14th Amendment option, which some believe renders the debt limit unconstitutional; however, the President said it would have to be litigated which doesn’t solve the immediate problem. The President and congressional leaders will reconvene on Friday, 5/12. Related: The President mentioned prior discussions with Harvard Law Professor Laurence Tribe, who published an op-ed in the NYTimes on 5/7 changing his position on the debt limit.

  • Mon., May 8: National Association of Government Employees (NAGE) filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court in Boston challenging the constitutionality of the debt limit, on the grounds that it “is in violation of the principle of the separation of powers, as set out in Articles I and II of the Constitution, because it necessarily confers on the Defendant President the unchecked discretion to cancel or curtail the operations of government approved by Congress without the approval of Congress.” The suit seeks to enjoin the Treasury Department from canceling or suspending any operations of government as a consequence of the debt limit.

  • Sun., May 7: Secretary Yellen, interviewed on ABC’s “This Week” said, “Whether it’s defaulting on interest payments that are due on the debt or payments due for Social Security recipients or to Medicare providers, we would simply not have enough cash to meet all of our obligations,” she said. “And it’s widely agreed that financial and economic chaos would ensue.”

  • Sat., May 6: 43 Senate Republicans sign letter pledging to oppose increase in debt limit “without substantive spending and budget reforms.”

  • Thurs., May 4: Senate Budget Committee hearing: “The Default on America Act–Blackmail, Brinkmanship, and Billionaire Backroom Deals.” Testimony of Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics.

  • Wed., May 3: White House releases The Potential Economic Impacts of Various Debt Ceiling Scenarios noting that “because the government would be unable to enact counter-cyclical measures in a breach-induced recession, there would be limited policy options to help buffer the impact on households and businesses.”

  • Tues., May 2: House Democratic Leader Jeffries in a letter to colleagues announces that a special rule has been filed by Rules Committee Ranking Member McGovern to enable discharge of a measure to which a debt ceiling extension could be attached (requiring 218 votes and the concurrence of at least 5 Republicans).

  • Mon., May 1: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns in letter to Congress, “our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1.” (emphasis added)

  • Mon., May 1: Majority Leader Schumer Dear Colleague letter stating House GOP-passed bill “has no hope of becoming law.”

  • Wed., Apr. 26: House GOP debt limit plan (HR 2811) passed 217-215.

  • Wed., Apr. 25: Congressional Budget Office cost estimate of H.R. 2811. Note that most of the spending cuts, $3.2 trillion over 10 years, would result from statutory caps on discretionary spending. The caps do not indicate which programs would be cut. However, if defense, veterans’ healthcare, and border security were exempted from the discretionary spending cuts (as House Appropriations leaders have promised), the reductions would be extreme and politically unpalatable — average cuts of 33% in FY 2024 and 59% by 2033 if the cuts were applied across-the-board.

  • Wed., Apr. 19: Speaker McCarthy released debt limit plan (HR 2811) conditioning a debt limit suspension on deep spending cuts, reduction in IRS enforcement, and cuts in clean energy credits, student loan assistance, Medicaid, food stamps, and assistance for needy families:

    • suspends the debt limit through March 31, 2024, or until the debt increases by $1.5 trillion, whichever occurs first;

    • establishes discretionary spending caps for FY2024-FY2033 that include major unspecified cuts of $3.2 trillion over 10 yrs. in discretionary spending;

    • cuts funds for IRS enforcement of tax laws (resulting in $120b in revenue losses over 10 yrs. and increased debt);

    • nullifies President’s student loan cancellation and income-based repayment plans;

    • repeals or cuts $531b in tax credits/breaks for renewable and clean energy, energy efficiency, alternative fuels, and electric vehicles;

    • cuts TANF (temporary assistance for needy families), SNAP (food stamps) and Medicaid by $120b over 10 yrs. through new work requirements; and

    • requires major federal rules (i.e., rules likely to result in annual economic effect of at least $100 million) to be approved by Congress before they take effect.

    • Source for estimates: CBO, JCT, Moody’s Analytics

  • Mon., Apr. 17: Speaker McCarthy speech at New York Stock Exchange stating that “a no-strings-attached debt limit increase will not pass.”

  • Sat., Apr. 15: House and Senate miss deadline to adopt an FY 2024 Budget Resolution.

  • Thurs., Mar. 9: President Biden releases detailed budget plan.

  • Tues., Mar. 7: Economists at Moody’s estimate August 18 “x-date” after which Treasury may be unable to fulfill U.S. financial obligations without an increase in the debt limit.

  • Wed., Feb. 15: Congressional Budget Office projects “if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government’s ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will be exhausted between July and September 2023.”

  • Thurs., Feb. 2: Speaker McCarthy: “We will not pass a clean debt ceiling here without some form of spending reform. So there will never be a clean one.”

  • Wed., Feb. 1: President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy meet on debt ceiling.

  • Fri., Jan. 27: 24 GOP Senators send letter to President Biden vowing to oppose a debt ceiling increase “without structural reforms to address current and future fiscal realities….enforce the budget and spending rules on the books, and manage out-of-control government policies.”

  • Tues., Jan. 24: Secretary Yellen Sends Debt Limit Letter to Congress updating extraordinary measures.

  • Thurs., Jan. 19: Secretary Yellen Sends Debt Limit Letter to Congress notifying lawmakers that extraordinary measures have begun to prevent the U.S. from defaulting on its obligations. Description of Extraordinary Measures. FAQs on the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund.

  • Fri., Jan. 13: Secretary Yellen Sends Debt Limit Letter to Congress notifying lawmakers that debt is projected to reach the statutory limit on 01/19/2023 and that use of extraordinary measures to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations.

  • Thurs., Jan. 12: Balancing budget within a decade would cut spending 85% if defense, veterans, Social Security and Medicare are off the table

  • Mon., Jan. 9: Speaker’s deal to balance budget within a decade

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