The Fed
These resources will be available to paid subscribers only beginning March 1, 2026 (only $8/month or $50/year, and 20% off if you subscribe by January 31, 2026). (If you forget our substack address, you can always find us at TrillionsWeekly.com.)
Thurs, Dec 18, 2025:
As President Trump’s beauty pageant to select a new Federal Reserve chief grinds on, spare a thought for the booby prize Jerome Powell has left for his successor. Last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting dragged the central bank back into quantitative easing. – WSJ
Quantitative easing is back. Let’s hope it works for all Americans this time. The Fed’s rate cut wasn’t the surprising part of its moves this month. – WP
The reason is that multiple deflationary forces loom: Artificial intelligence and robotics are automating away inefficiencies. Tariffs are reshaping trade. And a surge in deportations is tightening labor markets. Each would be worth watching on its own, but collectively they create perfect conditions for the Fed to fail at monetary policy.
Wed, Dec 17, 2025:
Next Fed Chair in ‘No-Win Scenario’ as Selection Process Draws to a Close. The person picked to replace Jerome H. Powell will be thrust into a credibility problem that will be difficult to escape. – NYT
Tues, Dec 16, 2025:
Trump officials privately raise doubts about Hassett for Fed chair. Hassett’s critics say he has not been effective as head of the National Economic Council, playing little part in driving policies. – Politico
Mon, Dec 15, 2025:
Hassett’s Fed chair candidacy received pushback from high-level people close to Trump – CNBC
Fri, Dec 12, 2025:
Trump Says He Is Leaning Toward Warsh or Hassett to Lead the Fed. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates. – WSJ
During a 45-minute meeting with Warsh on Wednesday at the White House, the president pressed Warsh on whether he could trust him to support interest-rate cuts if he were chosen to lead the central bank, according to people familiar with the meeting. Trump, in the Journal interview, confirmed that reporting.
Fed Officials Split Over Risks to US Economy Going Into 2026 – Bloomberg
Fed Board Votes Unanimously to Reappoint Reserve Bank Presidents. The administrative move had drawn unusual attention amid President Trump’s pressure campaign on the central bank – WSJ
Thurs, Dec 11, 2025:
The bar is now significantly higher for the Fed to carry out further reductions, with policymakers facing a tricky task in balancing inflation and hiring momentum. – Bloomberg
Wed, Dec 10, 2025:
Federal Reserve cuts key rate, sees healthier economy next year – AP
A Divided Fed Cuts Rates Again—but Why? The central bank predicts faster economic growth in 2026 but still eases again. – WSJ
Fri, Dec 5, 2025:
Even If Fed Cuts Rates Again, US Economy May Not Get Much of a Boost – Bloomberg
Thurs, Dec 4, 2025:
Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair – FT
Tues, Nov 25, 2025:
Hassett Emerges as Frontrunner in Trump Fed Chair Audition – Bloomberg
Mon, Nov 24, 2025:
Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening for December Rate Cut. A divided committee, missing data and a whiff of stagflation leave Powell to choose between two paths—each with drawbacks. – WSJ
Thurs, Nov 20, 2025:
House Financial Services Chair French Hill is blocking a bipartisan Senate… proposal to include in the National Defense Authorization Act… a provision that would temporarily ban a central bank digital currency. – Politico
Wed, Nov 19, 2025:
Bond Market Wagers on Fed Rate Cut Crumble on Jobs Data Void – Bloomberg
Thurs, Nov 13, 2025:
Equities tumble, bond prices dip as hopes fade for Fed rate cut in December – Reuters
Wed, Nov 12, 2025:
Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut – WSJ
Wed, Oct 29, 2025:
Fed Cuts Rates by Another Quarter Point, but Future Cuts Are ‘Far From’ Certain. Powell injects new doubt by highlighting a ‘growing chorus’ of officials who are wary about further reductions – WSJ
Federal Reserve cuts key rate as government shutdown clouds economic outlook – AP
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday for its second consecutive meeting, seeking to steady a weakening labor market as a month-long government shutdown has clouded its view of the economy. – WP
Fed’s Powell says don’t count on a December rate cut. Powell added that tariffs are fueling inflation – Reuters
Tues, Oct 28, 2025:
How the Shutdown Has Cut Off Key Data Guiding the Fed – Bloomberg
The Fed’s $6.6 Trillion Test: When to End Its Portfolio Runoff. Three-year bid to shrink its asset portfolio comes up against signs of funding pressures in overnight lending markets – WSJ
The Fed’s $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Is About Right – Bloomberg
Mon, Oct 27, 2025:
Federal Reserve meets Wednesday for interest rate decision. Here’s what economists predict. – CBS
Tues, Oct 14, 2025:
Powell Signals Fed Is on Track to Keep Cutting Rates; still sees labor market risks outweighing those posed by higher inflation tied to President Trump’s tariffs. – NYT
Fri, Oct 10, 2025:
Trump’s Fed chair candidates list narrowed down to five by Bessent after interviews – CNBC
Wed, Oct 8, 2025:
Scott Bessent grilled Fed chair candidates on rates and quantitative easing. Trump administration ends first round of interviews to find replacement for Jay Powell – FT
Wed, Oct 1, 2025:
The Supreme Court on Wednesday allowed Lisa Cook to remain as a Federal Reserve governor for now, declining to act on the Trump administration’s effort to immediately remove her from the central bank. – AP
Thurs, Sept 25, 2025:
Greenspan, Bernanke Yellen urge Supreme Court to let Lisa Cook keep her job as a Fed governor – AP
Tues, Sept 23, 2025:
Powell signals Federal Reserve to move slowly on interest rate cuts – AP
Wed, Sept 17, 2025:
Fed announces first rate cut in nine months, signals more reductions to come. Central bankers opted for a quarter-point cut this time around. – CNN
Tues, Sept 16, 2025:
A court blocked a last-minute attempt on Monday to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed board ahead of a meeting to set interest rates. – NYT
US Short-Term Rate Jumps to Year High as Funding Strains Grow – Bloomberg
Sun, Sept 14, 2025:
Trump Administration Claims Vast Powers as It Races to Fire Fed Governor Before Meeting. Trump has forged ahead with his attempts to fire Lisa Cook even as new documents call his claims of mortgage fraud into question. – NYT
Fri, Sept 12, 2025:
The economy looks weaker. The Federal Reserve looks weaker, too. With jobs down and inflation up, the Federal Reserve weighs rate cuts and attacks on its independence. WP
Thurs, Sept 11, 2025:
Trump Asks Court to Let Him Fire Cook – Bloomberg
Wed, Sept 10, 2025:
The Trump Administration appealed Tuesday’s District Court ruling that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook cannot be removed while her lawsuit is pending. – CNN
Stephen Miran, Trump’s Fed pick to fill vacant seat, could get Senate confirmation Monday. That would allow him to participate in a rate-setting meeting that starts Tuesday. – Politico
Will the Fed’s Independence Survive the Supreme Court? Chief Justice Roberts’ ruling in an FTC case leaves the Federal Reserve as the sole independent agency whose members the president can’t fire. – Bloomberg
Tues, Sept 9, 2025:
Pressure mounts for Fed rate cuts after massive employment revision. New numbers released by the Labor Department could boost Trump’s argument for lower borrowing costs. – Politico
On Tuesday, Federal Judge Jia M. Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that Trump cannot remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook while her lawsuit seeking to prevent her firing is still in progress. In the ruling, Cobb said that although the conflict is still in its preliminary stages, “Cook has made a strong showing that her purported removal was done in violation of the Federal Reserve Act’s ‘for cause’ provision.” Cobb noted that “for cause… does not contemplate removing an individual purely for conduct that occurred before they began in office,” suggesting that the allegations regarding Cook’s mortgage declarations of principal residence might not be relevant to her Fed service.
Fri, Sept 5, 2025:
Weak Jobs Report Strengthens Case for Rate Cuts. A reduction at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting this month looks all but assured after August’s labor market data. – NYT
Thurs, Sept 4, 2025:
Trump Is Making Strides in His Takeover of the Fed. White House official Miran would consider keeping his job while serving on Fed board in unprecedented arrangement – WSJ
Trump adviser Miran will take unpaid leave from White House if confirmed to Fed. His comment drew criticism from Senate Banking Democrats, who suggested it would compromise his independence from the White House. – Politico
Tues, Aug 26, 2025:
‘Uncharted Waters’: Trump’s Attempt to Take Charge of the Fed. The president’s intention to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook could give him sway over the central bank’s rate-setting power. – WSJ
Donald Trump’s attack on Fed shifts market bets on interest rates and inflation. Gap between long-term and short-term borrowing costs reaches its widest in three years. – FT
Mon, Aug 25, 2025:
President Trump announced via social media that he is removing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, based on unproven allegations of improperly designating her primary residence on mortgage applications. – AP
Cook has refused to resign and filed suit in federal court arguing the attempted removal lacked “cause” and is a pretext for undermining the independence of the Fed. While litigation proceeds, Cook remains an active governor.
Fri, Aug 22, 2025:
Powell Highlights Job Market Worries, Opening Path to Rate Cut. Fed chair sees ‘challenging situation’ as tariffs drive up costs and labor market appears to soften. – WSJ
Thurs, Aug 14, 2025:
Donald Trump Says He Has ‘Three or Four’ Candidates in Mind to Lead the Federal Reserve – FT